相关论文: Sequential infection experiments for quantifying i…
Despite high vaccine coverage, pertussis has re-emerged as a public health concern in many countries. One hypothesis posed for re-emergence is the waning of immunity. In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…
Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2)…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…
Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…
Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed exactly but rather known to lie in an interval between two successive…
The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…
Airborne infection risk analysis is usually performed for enclosed spaces where susceptible individuals are exposed to infectious airborne respiratory droplets by inhalation. It is usually based on exponential, dose-response models of which…
The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…
The Time Since Infection (TSI) models, which use disease surveillance data to model infectious diseases, have become increasingly popular due to their flexibility and capacity to address complex disease control questions. However, a notable…
Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…
Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models…
Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…
As pathogens spread in a population of hosts, immunity is built up and the pool of susceptible individuals is depleted. This generates selective pressure, to which many human RNA viruses, such as influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2, respond with…
Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current…
Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by…
Understanding which phenotypic traits are consistently correlated throughout evolution is a highly pertinent problem in modern evolutionary biology. Here, we propose a multivariate phylogenetic latent liability model for assessing the…