相关论文: Residual Value Forecasting Using Asymmetric Cost F…

Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the mean square error (MSE) is a common-used loss function to guide the training of an accurate load forecasting model. However, the MSE…

Cars are being sold more than ever. Developing countries adopt the lease culture instead of buying a new car due to affordability. Therefore, the rise of used cars sales is exponentially increasing. Car sellers sometimes take advantage of…

Renewable energy forecasting is the workhorse for efficient energy dispatch. However, forecasts with small mean squared errors (MSE) may not necessarily lead to low operation costs. Here, we propose a forecasting approach specifically…

Accurately forecasting the probability distribution of phenomena of interest is a classic and ever more widespread goal in statistics and decision theory. In comparison to point forecasts, probabilistic forecasts aim to provide a more…

Predicting the price of used vehicles is a more interesting and needed problem by many users. Vehicle price prediction can be a challenging task due to the high number of attributes that should be considered for accurate prediction. The…

Building an accurate load forecasting model with minimal underpredictions is vital to prevent any undesired power outages due to underproduction of electricity. However, the power consumption patterns of the residential sector contain…

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

For some estimations and predictions, we solve minimization problems with asymmetric loss functions. Usually, we estimate the coefficient of regression for these problems. In this paper, we do not make such the estimation, but rather give a…

Machine learning algorithms are increasingly employed to price or value homes for sale, properties for rent, rides for hire, and various other goods and services. Machine learning-based prices are typically generated by complex algorithms…

In predictive maintenance, model performance is usually assessed by means of precision, recall, and F1-score. However, employing the model with best performance, e.g. highest F1-score, does not necessarily result in minimum maintenance…

We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models…

Forecasts of product demand are essential for short- and long-term optimization of logistics and production. Thus, the most accurate prediction possible is desirable. In order to optimally train predictive models, the deviation of the…

This work introduces a methodology to adjust forecasts based on node-specific cost function asymmetry. The proposed model generates savings by dynamically incorporating the cost asymmetry into the forecasting error probability distribution…

We demonstrate that machine learning methods provide a powerful framework for modelling conditional asymmetric risk. Using a large cross-section of US stocks and a comprehensive set of firm characteristics, we show that allowing for…

The main goal of this topic is to showcase several studied algorithms for estimating the linear utility function to predict the users preferences. For example, if a user comes to buy a car that has several attributes including speed, color,…

Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the…

In the context of advertising auctions, finding good reserve prices is a notoriously challenging learning problem. This is due to the heterogeneity of ad opportunity types and the non-convexity of the objective function. In this work, we…

In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have become a powerful tool for improving the accuracy of predictions and decision-making. Machine learning technologies have begun to penetrate all areas, including the real estate sector.…

In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions. We introduce a cost function that encodes the trade-off between accuracy and reliability in probabilistic forecast. We derive analytic formula for…

Understanding whether a property is priced fairly hinders buyers and sellers since they usually do not have an objective viewpoint of the price distribution for the overall market of their interest. Drawing from data collected of all…