相关论文: Testing Forecast Accuracy of Expectiles and Quanti…

We propose randomization tests of whether forecast 1 outperforms forecast 2 across a class of scoring functions. This hypothesis is of applied interest: While the prediction context often prescribes a certain class of scoring functions, it…

Neural network emulators have become an invaluable tool for a wide variety of climate and weather prediction tasks. While showing incredibly promising results, these networks do not have an inherent ability to produce equitable predictions.…

The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

The paper investigates the robust optimized certainty equivalents and analyzes the relevant properties of them as risk measures for loss positions with distribution uncertainty. On this basis, the robust generalized quantiles are proposed…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss-controlling prediction for more general cases. By comparison,…

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

Forecasting risk (as measured by quantiles) and systemic risk (as measured by Adrian and Brunnermeiers's (2016) CoVaR) is important in economics and finance. However, past research has shown that predictive relationships may be unstable…

The paper concerns inference in the ill-conditioned functional response model, which is a part of functional data analysis. In this regression model, the functional response is modeled using several independent scalar variables. To verify…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are…

The predictive quality of machine learning models is typically measured in terms of their (approximate) expected prediction accuracy or the so-called Area Under the Curve (AUC). Minimizing the reciprocals of these measures are the goals of…

The property of conformal predictors to guarantee the required accuracy rate makes this framework attractive in various practical applications. However, this property is achieved at a price of reduction in precision. In the case of…

Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in real-world statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions. A central challenge in this setting is predicting a response…

Quantile regression, based on check loss, is a widely used inferential paradigm in Econometrics and Statistics. The conditional quantiles provide a robust alternative to classical conditional means, and also allow uncertainty quantification…

A test of the null hypothesis that a hazard rate is monotone nondecreasing, versus the alternative that it is not, is proposed. Both the test statistic and the means of calibrating it are new. Unlike previous approaches, neither is based on…

Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. (2014) revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law-invariant risk measures. In this article, we show…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

Prediction intervals are a valuable way of quantifying uncertainty in regression problems. Good prediction intervals should be both correct, containing the actual value between the lower and upper bound at least a target percentage of the…