相关论文: Sensitivity analysis using perturbed-law based ind…

The sensitivities revealed by a sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic network typically depend on the entered evidence. For a real-life network therefore, the analysis is performed a number of times, with different evidence. Although…

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Sensitivity Analysis is a framework to assess how conclusions drawn from missing outcome data may be vulnerable to departures from untestable underlying assumptions. We extend the E-value, a popular metric for quantifying robustness of…

To estimate direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome from observed data strong assumptions about unconfoundedness are required. Since these assumptions cannot be tested using the observed data, a mediation analysis should…

When eliciting probability models from experts, knowledge engineers may compare the results of the model with expert judgment on test scenarios, then adjust model parameters to bring the behavior of the model more in line with the expert's…

The objective of reliability sensitivity analysis is to determine input variables that mostly contribute to the variability of the failure probability. In this paper, we study a recently introduced method for the reliability sensitivity…

Shapley effects are attracting increasing attention as sensitivity measures. When the value function is the conditional variance, they account for the individual and higher order effects of a model input. They are also well defined under…

Research often necessitates of samples, yet obtaining large enough samples is not always possible. When it is, the researcher may use one of two methods for deciding upon the required sample size: rules-of-thumb, quick yet uncertain, and…

In this paper we propose and discuss variance reduction techniques for the estimation of quantiles of the output of a complex model with random input parameters. These techniques are based on the use of a reduced model, such as a metamodel…

Generally, natural scientific problems are so complicated that one has to establish some effective perturbation or nonperturbation theories with respect to some associated ideal models. In this Letter, a new theory that combines…

We investigate the estimation of a small interaction parameter from the outcomes of weak quantum measurements implemented by the interaction. The relation of weak values and sensitivity is explained and the different contributions of…

Stochastic models are necessary for the realistic description of an increasing number of applications. The ability to identify influential parameters and variables is critical to a thorough analysis and understanding of the underlying…

We present a theory for wave scintillation in the situation with a time-dependent partially coherent source and a time-dependent randomly heterogeneous medium. Our objective is to understand how the scintillation index of the measured…

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

Nonparametric Instrumental Variables (NPIV) analysis is based on a conditional moment restriction. We show that if this moment condition is even slightly misspecified, say because instruments are not quite valid, then NPIV estimates can be…

In uncertainty quantification, a stochastic modelling is often applied, where parameters are substituted by random variables. We investigate linear dynamical systems of ordinary differential equations with a quantity of interest as output.…

We derive a novel sensitivity analysis of input variables for predictive epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We use Bayesian neural networks with latent variables as a model class and illustrate the usefulness of our sensitivity analysis…

This work introduces the use of multivariate global sensitivity analysis for assessing the impact of uncertain electric machine design parameters on efficiency maps and profiles. Contrary to the common approach of applying variance-based…

The sensitivity parameter is widely used for quantifying fine tuning. However, examples show it fails to give correct results under certain circumstances. We argue that these problems only occur when calculating the sensitivity of a…

The Shapley effects are global sensitivity indices: they quantify the impact of each input variable on the output variable in a model. In this work, we suggest new estimators of these sensitivity indices. When the input distribution is…