相关论文: Luck is Hard to Beat: The Difficulty of Sports Pre…
In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams using a statistical method. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete…
The selection of an appropriate competition format is critical for both the success and credibility of any competition, both real and simulated. In this paper, the automated parallelism offered by the RoboCupSoccer 2D simulation league is…
Discussions on outstanding---positively and/or negatively---athletes are common practice. The rapidly grown amount of collected sports data now allow to support such discussions with state of the art statistical methodology. Given a…
Fantasy basketball has a rich underlying mathematical structure which makes optimal drafting strategy unclear. A central issue for category leagues is how to aggregate a player's statistics from all categories into a single number…
We analyse a mathematical model of seeding for sports contests with round-robin qualifying tournaments. The standard seeding system based on coefficients measuring the historical performance of the teams is shown to be unfair as it might…
From sports to science, the recent availability of large-scale data has allowed to gain insights on the drivers of human innovation and success in a variety of domains. Here we quantify human performance in the popular game of chess by…
Volleyball is a team sport with unique and specific characteristics. We introduce a new two level-hierarchical Bayesian model which accounts for theses volleyball specific characteristics. In the first level, we model the set outcome with a…
Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is…
This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of…
Sports data analytics is a relevant topic in applied statistics that has been growing in importance in recent years. In basketball, a player or team has a hot hand when their performance during a match is better than expected or they are on…
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend…
There is enduring interest in disentangling the effects of skill and luck in sport. A key issue in Formula 1 is distinguishing between car-level and driver-level effects. Four elite teams currently dominate Formula 1 and have won every…
We analyze the results of the German Team Handball Bundesliga for ten seasons in a model-free statistical time series approach. We will show that the home advantage is nearly negligible compared to the total sum of goals. Specific interest…
At the end, the house always wins! This simple truth holds for all public games of chance. Nevertheless, since lotteries have existed, people have tried everything to give luck a helping hand. This article compares objective scientific…
In recent years, data-driven approaches have become a popular tool in a variety of sports to gain an advantage by, e.g., analysing potential strategies of opponents. Whereas the availability of play-by-play or player tracking data in sports…
Many of the existing approaches to assess and predict the performance of players, teams or products in competitive contests rely on the assumption that comparisons occur between pairs of such entities. There are, however, several real…
Baseball is a game of strategic decisions including bullpen usage, pinch-hitting and intentional walks. Managers must adjust their strategies based on the changing state of the game in order to give their team the best chance of winning. In…
Most existing work on predicting NCAAB matches has been developed in a statistical context. Trusting the capabilities of ML techniques, particularly classification learners, to uncover the importance of features and learn their…
In J. Schwenk.(2018) ['What is the Correct Way to Seed a Knockout Tournament?' Retrieved from The American Mathematical Monthly], Schwenk identified a surprising weakness in the standard method of seeding a single elimination (or knockout)…
Competitive balance in a football league is extremely important from the perspective of economic growth of the industry. Many researchers have earlier proposed different measures of competitive balance, which are primarily adapted from the…