相关论文: Distributions-oriented wind forecast verification …

The Southwestern South Atlantic (SWSA) is a key region for climate research and renewable energy assessment, yet high-resolution meteorological data are scarce. We present a multiresolution dataset spanning February 2017--November 2018,…

Background. This paper study statistical data gathered from wind turbines located on the territory of the Republic of Poland. The research is aimed to construct the stochastic model that predicts the change of wind speed with time. Purpose.…

Accurate forecasts of extreme wind speeds are of high importance for many applications. Such forecasts are usually generated by ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which however can be biased and have errors in…

In this paper, we develop a distributionally robust model predictive control framework for the control of wind farms with the goal of power tracking and mechanical stress reduction of the individual wind turbines. We introduce an ARMA model…

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) methods are popular for solar forecasting. However, NWP models have multiple possible physical parameterizations, which requires site-specific NWP optimization. This is further…

Wind energy plays a critical role in the transition towards renewable energy sources. However, the uncertainty and variability of wind can impede its full potential and the necessary growth of wind power capacity. To mitigate these…

The main objective of this study is to propose an enhanced wind power forecasting (EWPF) transformer model for handling power grid operations and boosting power market competition. It helps reliable large-scale integration of wind power…

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

In this paper, we address the issue of short-term wind speed prediction at a given site. We show that, when one uses spatiotemporal information as provided by wind data of neighboring stations, one significantly improves the prediction…

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

The extensive penetration of wind farms (WFs) presents challenges to the operation of distribution networks (DNs). Building a probability distribution of the aggregated wind power forecast error is of great value for decision making.…

In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring,…

This paper studies an adaptive approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting (WPF) including offline and online learning procedures. In the offline learning stage, a base forecast model is trained via inner and outer loop updates of…

Weather regimes are recurrent and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that modulate the occurrence of local impact variables such as extreme precipitation. In their capacity as mediators between long-range…

We consider the problem of dispatching WindFarm (WF) power demand to individual Wind Turbines (WT) with the goal of minimizing mechanical stresses. We assume wind is strong enough to let each WTs to produce the required power and propose…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…

We consider the problem of short-term forecasting of surface wind speed probability distribution. Our approach consists in predicting the parameters of a given probability density function by training a neural network model whose loss…

Numerical weather predictions (NWP) are systematically subject to errors due to the deterministic solutions used by numerical models to simulate the atmosphere. Statistical postprocessing techniques are widely used nowadays for NWP…

In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on…