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Distribution forecast can quantify forecast uncertainty and provide various forecast scenarios with their corresponding estimated probabilities. Accurate distribution forecast is crucial for planning - for example when making production…

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

We construct and analyze an estimator of association between random variables based on their similarity in both direction and magnitude. Under special conditions, the proposed measure becomes a robust and consistent estimator of the linear…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-21 Ilya Archakov

The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets, the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding. As an alternative, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-07-03 Ariel Kleiner , Ameet Talwalkar , Purnamrita Sarkar , Michael Jordan

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

Although much progress has been made in the theory and application of bootstrap approximations for max statistics in high dimensions, the literature has largely been restricted to cases involving light-tailed data. To address this issue, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-24 Mingshuo Liu , Miles E. Lopes

Robust optimization provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, with broad applications in finance, engineering, and operations research. In portfolio optimization, uncertainty in expected returns and covariances…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-10-15 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Grover Guzman , Nick Firoozye

Violation of the assumptions underlying classical (Gaussian) limit theory often yields unreliable statistical inference. This paper shows that the bootstrap can detect such violations by delivering simple and powerful diagnostic tests that…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-09 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Luca Fanelli , Iliyan Georgiev

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, and randomization serves as a reasoned basis for inference. In widely used stratified randomized experiments, randomization-based finite-population asymptotic…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-20 Haoyang Yu , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-19 Yen-Chi Chen , Y. Samuel Wang , Elena A. Erosheva

This paper introduces smoothed pseudo-population bootstrap methods for the purposes of variance estimation and the construction of confidence intervals for finite population quantiles. In an i.i.d. context, it has been shown that resampling…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Vanessa McNealis , Christian Léger

The validity of various bootstrapping methods has been proved for the sample mean of strongly mixing data. But in many applications, there appear nonlinear statistics of processes that are not strongly mixing. We investigate the…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-07-28 Olimjon Sh. Sharipov , Martin Wendler

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-20 Charita Dellaporta , Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas , François-Xavier Briol

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Nitai D. Mukhopadhyay

Support vector machines have attracted much attention in theoretical and in applied statistics. Main topics of recent interest are consistency, learning rates and robustness. In this article, it is shown that support vector machines are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2011-11-04 Robert Hable , Andreas Christmann

The practical implementation of Bayesian inference requires numerical approximation when closed-form expressions are not available. What types of accuracy (convergence) of the numerical approximations guarantee robustness and what types do…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-04-21 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) parameter estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. The key result of Efron (2014) is a very convenient and widely applicable formula for a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-04-29 Paul Kabaila , Christeen Wijethunga

This paper provides conditions under which subsampling and the bootstrap can be used to construct estimators of the quantiles of the distribution of a root that behave well uniformly over a large class of distributions $\mathbf{P}$. These…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-02-19 Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh

The last decade has seen a number of advances in computationally efficient algorithms for statistical methods subject to robustness constraints. An estimator may be robust in a number of different ways: to contamination of the dataset, to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-08 Gautam Kamath

Robust statistics traditionally focuses on outliers, or perturbations in total variation distance. However, a dataset could be corrupted in many other ways, such as systematic measurement errors and missing covariates. We generalize the…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-12-15 Banghua Zhu , Jiantao Jiao , Jacob Steinhardt