相关论文: Parametric uncertainty in complex environmental mo…

For multiple reasons -- such as avoiding overtraining from one data set or because of having received numerical estimates for some parameters in a model from an alternative source -- it is sometimes useful to divide a model's parameters…

This paper explores learning emulators for parameter estimation with uncertainty estimation of high-dimensional dynamical systems. We assume access to a computationally complex simulator that inputs a candidate parameter and outputs a…

Climate models project an uncertainty range of possible warming scenarios from 1.5 to 5 degree Celsius global temperature increase until 2100, according to the CMIP6 model ensemble. Climate risk management and infrastructure adaptation…

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Uncertainties from model parameters and model discrepancy from small-scale models impact the accuracy and reliability of predictions of large-scale systems. Inadequate representation of these uncertainties may result in inaccurate and…

Model-form uncertainty (MFU) in assumptions made during physics-based model development is widely considered a significant source of uncertainty; however, there are limited approaches that can quantify MFU in predictions extrapolating…

Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…

Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation. These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected, and it is important that modellers…

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…

With the advent of improved computational resources, aerospace design has testing-based process to a simulation-driven procedure, wherein uncertainties in design and operating conditions are explicitly accounted for in the design under…

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…

It is important to accurately model materials' properties at lower length scales (micro-level) while translating the effects to the components and/or system level (macro-level) can significantly reduce the amount of experimentation required…

We investigate the dynamic response of flexible aircraft in low-altitude atmospheric turbulence. To this end, three turbulence models of increasing fidelity, namely, the one-dimensional von K{\'a}rm{\'a}n model, the two-dimensional Kaimal…

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…

We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by…

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…

Large computer models are ubiquitous in the earth sciences. These models often have tens or hundreds of tuneable parameters and can take thousands of core-hours to run to completion while generating terabytes of output. It is becoming…

Spatial dynamic microsimulations probabilistically project geographically referenced units with individual characteristics over time. Like any projection method, their outcomes are inherently uncertain and sensitive to multiple factors.…

In literature, scientists describe human mobility in a range of granularities by several different models. Using frameworks like MATSIM, VehiLux, or Sumo, they often derive individual human movement indicators in their most detail. However,…