相关论文: Decentralized Prediction Market without Arbiters

Thanks to the high potential for profit, trading has become increasingly attractive to investors as the cryptocurrency and stock markets rapidly expand. However, because financial markets are intricate and dynamic, accurately predicting…

Cryptocurrency markets present unique prediction challenges due to their extreme volatility, 24/7 operation, and hypersensitivity to news events, with existing approaches suffering from key information extraction and poor sideways market…

Traditional blockchain design gives miners or validators full control over transaction ordering, i.e., they can freely choose which transactions to include or exclude, as well as in which order. While not an issue initially, the emergence…

In this short note we show that the Bitcoin network can allow remote parties to gamble with their bitcoins by tossing a fair or biased coin, with no need for a trusted party, and without the possibility of extortion by dishonest parties who…

Most online lotteries today fail to ensure the verifiability of the random process and rely on a trusted third party. This issue has received little attention since the emergence of distributed protocols like Bitcoin that demonstrated the…

We construct a privacy-preserving, distributed and decentralized marketplace where parties can exchange data for tokens. In this market, buyers and sellers make transactions in a blockchain and interact with a third party, called notary,…

We present an experimental study of decentralized two-sided matching markets with no transfers. Experimental participants are informed of everyone's preferences and can make arbitrary non-binding match offers that get finalized when a…

We study auction design in a setting where agents can communicate over a censorship-resistant broadcast channel like the ones we can implement over a public blockchain. We seek to design credible, strategyproof auctions in a model that…

Prediction markets provide an efficient means to assess uncertain quantities from forecasters. Traditional and competitive strictly proper scoring rules have been shown to incentivize players to provide truthful probabilistic forecasts.…

Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies prioritize transactions based on their fees, creating a unique kind of fee market. Empirically, this market has failed to yield stable equilibria with predictable prices for desired levels of service. We…

Game theory is often used as a tool to analyze decentralized systems and their properties, in particular, blockchains. In this note, we take the opposite view. We argue that blockchains can and should be used to implement economic…

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed…

Many protocols in distributed computing rely on a source of randomness, usually called a random beacon, both for their applicability and security. This is especially true for proof-of-stake blockchain protocols in which the next miner or…

Prediction markets are useful for estimating probabilities of claims whose truth will be revealed at some fixed time -- this includes questions about the values of real-world events (i.e. statistical uncertainty), and questions about the…

Inspired by Bitcoin, many different kinds of cryptocurrencies based on blockchain technology have turned up on the market. Due to the special structure of the blockchain, it has been deemed impossible to directly trade between traditional…

Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for…

Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This…

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) money markets have seen explosive growth in recent years, with billions of dollars borrowed in various cryptocurrency assets. Key to the safety of money markets is the implementation of interest rates that…

The popularity of cryptocurrencies has grown significantly in recent years, and they have become an important asset for internet trading. One of the main drawbacks of cryptocurrencies is the high volatility and fluctuation in value. The…

Prior work has investigated variations of prediction markets that preserve participants' (differential) privacy, which formed the basis of useful mechanisms for purchasing data for machine learning objectives. Such markets required…