相关论文: Worst-Case Expected Shortfall with Univariate and …

We investigate the problem of continuous-time causal estimation under a minimax criterion. Let $X^T = \{X_t,0\leq t\leq T\}$ be governed by the probability law $P_{\theta}$ from a class of possible laws indexed by $\theta \in \Lambda$, and…

Forecasting with longitudinal data has been rarely studied. Most of the available studies are for continuous response and all of them are for univariate response. In this study, we consider forecasting multivariate longitudinal binary data.…

A simple method is shown to provide optimal variational bounds on $f$-divergences with possible constraints on relative information extremums. Known results are refined or proved to be optimal as particular cases.

Motivated by applications in online bidding and sleeping bandits, we examine the problem of contextual bandits with cross learning, where the learner observes the loss associated with the action across all possible contexts, not just the…

Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable…

Causal analysis may be affected by selection bias, which is defined as the systematic exclusion of data from a certain subpopulation. Previous work in this area focused on the derivation of identifiability conditions. We propose instead a…

Random effect models are popular statistical models for detecting and correcting spurious sample correlations due to hidden confounders in genome-wide gene expression data. In applications where some confounding factors are known,…

Contextual stochastic optimization is an advanced methodology to model uncertainty in the presence of contextual information during decision planning processes. Although classical methodologies focus on minimizing the expectation of a…

We present the first minimax risk bounds for estimators of the spectral measure in multivariate linear factor models, where observations are linear combinations of regularly varying latent factors. Non-asymptotic convergence rates are…

Designs which are minimax in the presence of model misspecifications have been constructed so as to minimize the maximum, over classes of alternate response models, of the integrated mean squared error of the predicted values. This mean…

Problem definition: We consider a newsvendor problem with unknown demand distribution, where we distinguish ambiguity under which the newsvendor does not differentiate demand distributions of common characteristics and misspecification…

While Robust Model Predictive Control considers the worst-case system uncertainty, Stochastic Model Predictive Control, using chance constraints, provides less conservative solutions by allowing a certain constraint violation probability…

We derive a tight lower bound on equivocation (conditional entropy), or equivalently a tight upper bound on mutual information between a signal variable and channel outputs. The bound is in terms of the joint distribution of the signals and…

The statistics and machine learning communities have recently seen a growing interest in classification-based approaches to two-sample testing. The outcome of a classification-based two-sample test remains a rejection decision, which is not…

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…

In this paper, we study a bivariate distributionally robust optimization problem with mean-covariance ambiguity set and half-space support. Under a conventional type of objective function widely adopted in inventory management, option…

In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…

We introduce the notion of Worst-Case Sensitivity, defined as the worst-case rate of increase in the expected cost of a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) model when the size of the uncertainty set vanishes. We show that worst-case…

The likelihood function of a finite mixture model is a non-convex function with multiple local maxima and commonly used iterative algorithms such as EM will converge to different solutions depending on initial conditions. In this paper we…

Estimating and optimizing Mutual Information (MI) is core to many problems in machine learning; however, bounding MI in high dimensions is challenging. To establish tractable and scalable objectives, recent work has turned to variational…