相关论文: Worst-Case Expected Shortfall with Univariate and …

We derive an (almost) guaranteed upper bound on the error of deep neural networks under distribution shift using unlabeled test data. Prior methods either give bounds that are vacuous in practice or give estimates that are accurate on…

We propose a unified framework for likelihood-based regression modeling when the response variable has finite support. Our work is motivated by the fact that, in practice, observed data are discrete and bounded. The proposed methods assume…

While useful probability bounds for $n$ pairwise independent Bernoulli random variables adding up to at least an integer $k$ have been proposed in the literature, none of these bounds are tight in general. In this paper, we provide several…

Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…

We analyze the problem of sequential probability assignment for binary outcomes with side information and logarithmic loss, where regret---or, redundancy---is measured with respect to a (possibly infinite) class of experts. We provide upper…

Robust and distributionally robust optimization are modeling paradigms for decision-making under uncertainty where the uncertain parameters are only known to reside in an uncertainty set or are governed by any probability distribution from…

In this paper, we discuss the ambiguous chance constrained based portfolio optimization problems, in which the perturbations associated with the input parameters are stochastic in nature, but their distributions are not known precisely. We…

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

In the propositional setting, the marginal problem is to find a (maximum-entropy) distribution that has some given marginals. We study this problem in a relational setting and make the following contributions. First, we compare two…

In order to anticipate rare and impactful events, we propose to quantify the worst-case risk under distributional ambiguity using a recent development in kernel methods -- the kernel mean embedding. Specifically, we formulate the…

We study problems with stochastic uncertainty information on intervals for which the precise value can be queried by paying a cost. The goal is to devise an adaptive decision tree to find a correct solution to the problem in consideration…

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

We consider the worst-case expectation of a permutation invariant ambiguity set of discrete distributions as a proxy-cost for data-driven expected risk minimization. For this framework, we coin the term ordered risk minimization to…

Risk measures for multivariate financial positions are studied in a utility-based framework. Under a certain incomplete preference relation, shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of specific set…

We present a novel analysis of the expected risk of weighted majority vote in multiclass classification. The analysis takes correlation of predictions by ensemble members into account and provides a bound that is amenable to efficient…

Determining the strength of non-linear statistical dependencies between two variables is a crucial matter in many research fields. The established measure for quantifying such relations is the mutual information. However, estimating mutual…

To provide a comprehensive summary of the tail distribution, the expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail above (or below) a certain quantile of the distribution. The expected shortfall regression captures the…

In certain privacy-sensitive scenarios within fields such as clinical trial simulations, federated learning, and distributed learning, researchers often face the challenge of estimating correlations between variables without access to…

We provide a unifying framework for distributed convex optimization over time-varying networks, in the presence of constraints and uncertainty, features that are typically treated separately in the literature. We adopt a proximal…

The efficacy of robust optimization spans a variety of settings with uncertainties bounded in predetermined sets. In many applications, uncertainties are affected by decisions and cannot be modeled with current frameworks. This paper takes…