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Many dynamic processes on complex networks, from disease outbreaks to cascading failures, can rapidly accelerate once a critical threshold is exceeded, potentially leading to severe social and economic costs. Therefore, in order to develop…

Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this…

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no…

At the beginning of 2020 the world has seen the initial outbreak of COVID-19, a disease caused by SARS-CoV2 virus in China. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared this disease as a pandemic on March 11 2020. As the disease spread…

Univariate zero-inflated models are increasingly being used to account for excess zeros in spatio-temporal infectious disease counts. However, the multivariate case is challenging due to the need to account for correlations across space,…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…

The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light…

We propose a novel framework to study viral spreading processes in metapopulation models. Large subpopulations (i.e., cities) are connected via metalinks (i.e., roads) according to a metagraph structure (i.e., the traffic infrastructure).…

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of…

COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…

For a given, arbitrary graph, what is the epidemic threshold? That is, under what conditions will a virus result in an epidemic? We provide the super-model theorem, which generalizes older results in two important, orthogonal dimensions.…

The subset selection problem of linear algebra is applied to identify independent patterns of COVID-19 evolution within Brazil. The data consist of a set of mortality curves in states of Brazil. A subset of the most independent curves is…

A great variety of complex physical, natural and artificial systems are governed by statistical distributions, which often follow a standard exponential function in the bulk, while their tail obeys the Pareto power law. The recently…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

In this paper, we use a Bayesian method to estimate the effective reproduction number (R(t)), in the context of monitoring the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil at different geographic levels. The focus of this study is to…

Dengue is a vector borne disease transmitted to humans by {\it{Aedes Aegypti}} mosquitoes carrying Dengue virus of different serotypes. Primarily an urban epidemic, Dengue exhibits complex spatial and temporal dynamics, influenced by many…