相关论文: Towards the Design of Prospect-Theory based Human …

We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…

Consider a Bayesian binary decision-making problem in star networks, where local agents make selfish decisions independently, and a fusion agent makes a final decision based on aggregated decisions and its own private signal. In particular,…

Statistical protocols are often used for decision-making involving multiple parties, each with their own incentives, private information, and ability to influence the distributional properties of the data. We study a game-theoretic version…

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

This paper investigates the dynamics of noncooperative interactions between artificial intelligence agents and human decision-makers in strategic environments. In particular, motivated by extensive literature in behavioral Economics, human…

Agents can achieve effective interaction with previously unknown other agents by maintaining beliefs over a set of hypothetical behaviours, or types, that these agents may have. A current limitation in this method is that it does not…

We study the utility of social learning in a distributed detection model with agents sharing the same goal: a collective decision that optimizes an agreed upon criterion. We show that social learning is helpful in some cases but is provably…

After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…

Methods for learning optimal policies in autonomous agents often assume that the way the domain is conceptualised---its possible states and actions and their causal structure---is known in advance and does not change during learning. This…

It is critical to understand and model the behavior of individuals in a pandemic, as well as identify effective ways to guide people's behavior in order to better control the epidemic spread. However, current research fails to account for…

This work explores a social learning problem with agents having nonidentical noise variances and mismatched beliefs. We consider an $N$-agent binary hypothesis test in which each agent sequentially makes a decision based not only on a…

Undesired bias afflicts both human and algorithmic decision making, and may be especially prevalent when information processing trade-offs incentivize the use of heuristics. One primary example is \textit{statistical discrimination} --…

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and…

In this paper, we consider one aspect of the problem of applying decision theory to the design of agents that learn how to make decisions under uncertainty. This aspect concerns how an agent can estimate probabilities for the possible…

We introduce a novel rule-based approach for handling regression problems. The new methodology carries elements from two frameworks: (i) it provides information about the uncertainty of the parameters of interest using Bayesian inference,…

A recent approach based on Bayesian inverse planning for the "theory of mind" has shown good performance in modeling human cognition. However, perfect inverse planning differs from human cognition during one kind of complex tasks due to…

Modeling social interactions based on individual behavior has always been an area of interest, but prior literature generally presumes rational behavior. Thus, such models may miss out on capturing the effects of biases humans are…

Computer modeling of human decision making is of large importance for, e.g., sustainable transport, urban development, and online recommendation systems. In this paper we present a model for predicting the behavior of an individual during a…

Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel…

We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some…