相关论文: An empirical analysis of the Ebola outbreak in Wes…
We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
We consider the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a Euclidean network in one dimension in which nodes at a distance $l$ are connected with probability $P(l) \propto l^{-\delta}$ in addition to nearest neighbors. The…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
We present a method for estimating epidemic parameters in network-based stochastic epidemic models when the total number of infections is assumed to be small. We illustrate the method by reanalyzing the data from the 2014 Democratic…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of…
We study the datafor the cumulative as well as daily number of cases in the Covid-19 outbreak in China. The cumulative data can be fit to an empirical form obtained from a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model studied on an Euclidean…
We study a resource allocation problem for containing an infectious disease in a metapopulation subject to resource uncertainty. We propose a two-stage model where the policy maker seeks to allocate resources in both stages where the second…
The 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. We developed spatial transmission models…
We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…
The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…
The Ebola virus disease is a severe viral haemorrhagic fever syndrome caused by Ebola virus. This disease is transmitted by direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person and objects contaminated with virus or infected animals,…
As of October 12, 2018, 211 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict…
A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak…
Zoonotic diseases spread through pathogens-infected animal carriers. In the case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), evidence supports that the main carriers are fruit bats and non-human primates. Further, EVD spread is a multi-factorial problem…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…