相关论文: An empirical analysis of the Ebola outbreak in Wes…

West Africa is currently experiencing a severe outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). As part of the international effort to address this outbreak, the United States has committed to building specialized Ebola treatment facilities with 1700…

Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Operationally, health workers and surveillance teams treated cases, collected genetic samples, and tracked case…

Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics…

In this paper, we have studied epidemiological models for Ebola infection using nonlinear ordinary differential equations and optimal control theory. We considered optimal control analysis of SIR and SEIR models for the deadly Ebola…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that currently requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in the United…

The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…

In severe outbreaks such as Ebola, bird flu and SARS, people share news, and their thoughts and responses regarding the outbreaks on social media. Understanding how people perceive the severe outbreaks, what their responses are, and what…

Dynamic models - often deterministic in nature - were used to estimate the basic reproductive number, R_0, of the 2014-5 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic outbreak in West Africa. Estimates of R_0 were then used to project the likelihood…

The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades. Here we find…

We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength…

When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…

Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…

Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one…

A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…

Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…

Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…

We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…

In early 2014 an outbreak of a slightly mutated Zaire Ebola subtype appeared in West Africa which is less virulent than 1976 and 1994 strains. The numbers of cases per year appear to be ~ 1000 times larger than the earlier strains,…