相关论文: Some Statistics concerning the Austrian Presidenti…

Election data represent a precious source of information to study human behavior at a large scale. In proportional elections with open lists, the number of votes received by a candidate, rescaled by the average performance of all…

In the past decade we have witnessed the failure of traditional polls in predicting presidential election outcomes across the world. To understand the reasons behind these failures we analyze the raw data of a trusted pollster which failed…

A new viewpoint on electoral involvement is proposed from the study of the statistics of the proportions of abstentionists, blank and null, and votes according to list of choices, in a large number of national elections in different…

The official data provided by "Central Election Commission" was analyzed, revealing irregularities that raised reasonable suspicion of election manipulation by the winning ``Georgian Dream Party." However, these suspicions alone were…

We show how to use automated computation of election margins to assess the number of votes that would need to change in order to alter a parliamentary outcome for single-member preferential electorates. In the context of increasing…

The main risk-limiting ballot polling audit in use today, BRAVO, is designed for use when single ballots are drawn at random and a decision regarding whether to stop the audit or draw another ballot is taken after each ballot draw…

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each…

Ranges of differentiated abstention are shown to reverse an "exact" poll estimate on voting day allowing the minority candidate to win the election. In a two-candidate competition A and B with voting intentions at $I_a$, $I_b=1-I_a$ and…

This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections…

Starting with the 2004 recall referendum, an important opposition sector to President Chavez has questioned the integrity of the Venezuelan electoral system, and casts doubt on the legitimacy and impartiality of the upcoming 2012…

A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002--2006) and applied to…

Since the result of the 2016 referendum, Brexit has been an unpredictable democratic adventure, the finale of which remains unclear. This year, in the final days of March, parliamentarians seized control of the order paper from the…

After an election, should election officials release a copy of each anonymous ballot? Some policymakers have championed public disclosure to counter distrust, but others worry that it might undermine ballot secrecy. We introduce the term…

This paper proposes an agent-based simulation of a presidential election, inspired by the French 2017 presidential election. The simulation is based on data extracted from polls, media coverage, and Twitter. The main contribution is to…

For many, social networks have become the primary source of news, although the correctness of the provided information and its trustworthiness are often unclear. The investigations of the 2016 US presidential elections have brought the…

Risk-limiting post election audits guarantee a high probability of correcting incorrect election results, independent of why the result was incorrect. Ballot-polling audits select ballots at random and interpret those ballots as evidence…

After the 2016 double dissolution election, the 45th Australian Parliament was formed. At the time of its swearing in, the Senate of the 45th Australian Parliament consisted of nine political parties, the largest number in the history of…

On August 15th, 2004, Venezuelans had the opportunity to vote in a Presidential Recall Referendum to decide whether or not President Hugo Ch\'{a}vez should be removed from office. The process was largely computerized using a touch-screen…

An election is a process through which citizens in liberal democracies select their governing bodies, usually through voting. For elections to be truly honest, people must be able to vote freely without being subject to coercion; that is…

In Spatial Voting Theory, distortion is a measure of how good the winner is. It is proved that no deterministic voting mechanism can guarantee a distortion better than $3$, even for simple metrics such as a line. In this study, we wish to…