相关论文: Fat tailed distributions for deaths in conflicts a…

This study examines whether there has been a decline in the risk of death by battle during wars, testing the 'long peace' hypothesis. The analysis relies on the Expanded War Dataset (Gleditsch, 2004) covering intra- and inter-state wars…

We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…

Time evolution of the cities and of the languages is considered in terms of multiplicative noise and fragmentation processes; where power law (Pareto-Zipf law) and slightly asymmetric log-normal (Gauss) distribution result for the size…

This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of…

Acts of political violence in the continental United States have increased dramatically in the last decade. For this rise in political violence, we are interested in where and when such incidents occur: how are the locations and times of…

We consider stochastic growth models to represent population subject to catastrophes. We analyze the subject from different set ups considering or not spatial restrictions, whether dispersion is a good strategy to increase the population…

Social media has become an essential channel for posting disaster-related information, which provide governments and relief agencies real-time data for better disaster management. However, research in this field has not received sufficient…

A length dependence of the effective mobility in the form of a power law, B ~ L^(1-1/alpha) is observed in dispersive transport in amorphous substances, with 0 < \alpha < 1. We deduce this behavior as a simple consequence of the statistical…

We review recent results obtained from simple individual-based models of biological competition in which birth and death rates of an organism depend on the presence of other competing organisms close to it. In addition the individuals…

This paper delves into the impact of natural disasters on affected populations and underscores the imperative of reducing disaster-related fatalities through proactive strategies. On average, approximately 45,000 individuals succumb…

The fracture strength distribution of materials is often described in terms of the Weibull law which can be derived by using extreme value statistics if elastic interactions are ignored. Here, we consider explicitly the interplay between…

We empirically study the activity patterns of individual blog-posting and find significant memory effects. The memory coefficient first decays in a power law and then turns to an exponential form. Moreover, the inter-event time distribution…

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical…

We analyze the growth statistics of Swedish trade unions and find a universal functional form for the probability distribution of growth rates of union size, and a power law dependence of the standard deviation of this distribution on the…

The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution…

We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

We consider a multinomial distribution, where the number of cells increases and the cell-probabilities decreases as the number of observations grows. The probabilities of large deviations of statistics, which has form of a sum of Borel…

We investigate the relation between moments and tails of heavy-tailed (in particular, Pareto-type) distributions. We also discuss the sharpness of our results in a number of examples under certain regularity conditions like log-convexity.…