相关论文: Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems …

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Mathematical models of biological systems are beginning to be used for safety-critical applications, where large numbers of repeated model evaluations are required to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Most of…

Identifying the parameters of a model and rating competitive models based on measured data has been among the most important but challenging topics in modern science and engineering, with great potential of application in structural system…

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous methodology for estimation and uncertainty quantification of parameters in geophysical forward models. Badlands (basin and landscape dynamics model) is a landscape evolution model that simulates…

Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the…

Emulation has been successfully applied across a wide variety of scientific disciplines for efficiently analysing computationally intensive models. We develop known boundary emulation strategies which utilise the fact that, for many…

We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction…

Systems biology models are useful models of complex biological systems that may require a large amount of experimental data to fit each model's parameters or to approximate a likelihood function. These models range from a few to thousands…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Discovering causal genetic variants from large genetic association studies poses many difficult challenges. Assessing which genetic markers are involved in determining trait status is a computationally demanding task, especially in the…

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to…

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the…

This paper presents a new modeling strategy for joint unsupervised analysis of multiple high-throughput biological studies. As in Multi-study Factor Analysis, our goals are to identify both common factors shared across studies and…

Gene-gene and gene-environment interactions are widely believed to play significant roles in explaining the variability of complex traits. While substantial research exists in this area, a comprehensive statistical framework that addresses…

Computer models are used as a way to explore complex physical systems. Stationary Gaussian process emulators, with their accompanying uncertainty quantification, are popular surrogates for computer models. However, many computer models are…

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Frequentist statistical methods, such as hypothesis testing, are standard practice in papers that provide benchmark comparisons. Unfortunately, these methods have often been misused, e.g., without testing for their statistical test…

Computational models provide crucial insights into complex biological processes such as cancer evolution, but their mechanistic nature often makes them nonlinear and parameter-rich, complicating calibration. We systematically evaluate…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Bayesian nonparametric models offer a flexible and powerful framework for statistical model selection, enabling the adaptation of model complexity to the intricacies of diverse datasets. This survey intends to delve into the significance of…