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We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-16 Nicolas Bianco , Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi

We develop algorithms for performing semiparametric regression analysis in real time, with data processed as it is collected and made immediately available via modern telecommunications technologies. Our definition of semiparametric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-02-07 Jan Luts , Tamara Broderick , Matt P. Wand

Virtually all real-world networks are dynamical entities. In social networks, the propensity of nodes to engage in social interactions (activity) and their chances to be selected by active nodes (attractiveness) are heterogeneously…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2017-06-13 Laura Alessandretti , Kaiyuan Sun , Andrea Baronchelli , Nicola Perra

We study frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional Gaussian sparse regression when unknown nuisance parameters are involved. Nuisance parameters can be finite-, high-, or infinite-dimensional. A mixture…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-02-18 Seonghyun Jeong , Subhashis Ghosal

We describe a novel method for modeling non-stationary multivariate time series, with time-varying conditional dependencies represented through dynamic networks. Our proposed approach combines traditional multi-scale modeling and network…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-12-25 Xinyu Kang , Apratim Ganguly , Eric D. Kolaczyk

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-02-19 Michael Vogt

A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-10-27 Michele Costola , Matteo Iacopini , Casper Wichers

Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-24 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet

While there is an increasing amount of literature about Bayesian time series analysis, only a few Bayesian nonparametric approaches to multivariate time series exist. Most methods rely on Whittle's Likelihood, involving the second order…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-11-27 Alexander Meier , Claudia Kirch , Renate Meyer

We present Bayesian Spillover Graphs (BSG), a novel method for learning temporal relationships, identifying critical nodes, and quantifying uncertainty for multi-horizon spillover effects in a dynamic system. BSG leverages both an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Grace Deng , David S. Matteson

We introduce a general Bayesian framework for graph matching grounded in a new theory of exchangeable random permutations. Leveraging the cycle representation of permutations and the literature on exchangeable random partitions, we define,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Francesco Gaffi , Nathaniel Josephs , Lizhen Lin

This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-02-08 Eric Bauer , Daphne Koller , Yoram Singer

Models of complex networks often incorporate node-intrinsic properties abstracted as hidden variables. The probability of connections in the network is then a function of these variables. Real-world networks evolve over time, and many…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-05-19 Harrison Hartle , Fragkiskos Papadopoulos , Dmitri Krioukov

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

The non-stationary evolution of observable quantities in complex systems can frequently be described as a juxtaposition of quasi-stationary spells. Given that standard theoretical and data analysis approaches usually rely on the assumption…

统计力学 · 物理学 2011-10-18 S. Camargo , S. Duarte Queirós , C. Anteneodo

A variety of machine learning tasks---e.g., matrix factorization, topic modelling, and feature allocation---can be viewed as learning the parameters of a probability distribution over bipartite graphs. Recently, a new class of models for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-12-07 Victor Veitch , Ekansh Sharma , Zacharie Naulet , Daniel M. Roy

One of the pivotal tasks in scientific machine learning is to represent underlying dynamical systems from time series data. Many methods for such dynamics learning explicitly require the derivatives of state data, which are not directly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-17 Dongwei Ye , Mengwu Guo

Historically studies of behaviour on networks have focused on the behaviour of individuals (node-based) or on the aggregate behaviour of the entire network. We propose a new method to decompose a temporal network into macroscale components…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2018-08-16 Andrew Mellor

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Models for cross-sectional network data have become increasingly well-developed in recent decades, and are widely used. This has led to a growing interest in the connection between such cross-sectional models and the behavioral processes…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2026-05-05 Carter T. Butts , Alexander Murray-Watters