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Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

A new method is proposed for modelling the yearly maxima of sub-daily precipitation, with the aim of producing spatial maps of return level estimates. Yearly precipitation maxima are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a…

A new unimodal distribution family indexed by the mode and three other parameters is derived from a mixture of a Gumbel distribution for the maximum and a Gumbel distribution for the minimum. Properties of the proposed distribution are…

Empirical Bayes provides a powerful approach to learning and adapting to latent structure in data. Theory and algorithms for empirical Bayes have a rich literature for sequence models, but are less understood in settings where latent…

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

It has become increasingly common to collect high-dimensional binary response data; for example, with the emergence of new sampling techniques in ecology. In smaller dimensions, multivariate probit (MVP) models are routinely used for…

Modelling of precipitation, including extremes, is important for hydrological and agricultural applications. Traditionally, because of large sample properties for data over a large threshold value, generalised Pareto (GP) distributions are…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…

Many simple hydrologic models are based on parametric statistical relations between the river flow and catchment properties such as its area, precipitation rates, soil properties, etc., fitted to the available data. The main objective of…

A discrete version of the Gumbel (Type I) extreme value distribution has been derived by using the general approach of discretization of a continuous distribution. Important distributional and reliability properties have been explored. It…

We consider the problem of sampling from a product-of-experts-type model that encompasses many standard prior and posterior distributions commonly found in Bayesian imaging. We show that this model can be easily lifted into a novel latent…

In this paper, we discuss computational aspects to obtain accurate inferences for the parameters of the generalized gamma (GG) distribution. Usually, the solution of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for the GG distribution have no…

Usual estimation methods for the parameters of extreme values distribution employ only a few values, wasting a lot of information. More precisely, in the case of the Gumbel distribution, only the block maxima values are used. In this work,…

Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional,…

We study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with a general beta prime distribution for the scale parameter. Under the assumption of sparsity, we show that appropriate selection of the hyperparameters in the beta prime prior leads…

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…

In this paper we consider Bayesian estimation for the parameters of inverse Gaussian distribution. Our emphasis is on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We provide complete implementation of the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Assuming an…

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…