相关论文: Microsimulations of demographic changes in England…

We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international…

This paper presents a dynamic microsimulation model developed for Ireland, designed to simulate key demographic processes and individual life-course transitions from 2022 to 2057. The model captures four primary events: births, deaths,…

Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to analyse…

Brexit and its implications are an ongoing topic of interest since the Brexit referendum in 2016. In 2019 the House of commons held a number of "indicative" and "meaningful" votes as part of the Brexit approval process. The voting behaviour…

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Contextual and selection effects tend to produce extreme values in the tails of rank-ordered distributions…

International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…

Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, this leads to a significant increase in population…

In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…

Debates on an EU-leaving referendum arose in several member states after Brexit. We want to highlight how the exit of an additional country affects the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. We inspect the power indices of…

Countries like Poland with a recent sharp drop in birth rates still have some time to prepare for the problems of an ageing society. Ater the year 2030 they can become increasingly serious.

This documentation specifies a simplified non-calibrated demographic agent-based model of the UK, a largely simplified version of the Lone Parent Model presented in [Gostolil and Silverman 2020]. In the presented model, individuals of an…

We study the interplay of population growth and evolutionary dynamics using a stochastic model based on birth and death events. In contrast to the common assumption of an independent population size, evolution can be strongly affected by…

We propose a new approach to identifying geographical clustering and hotspots of inequality from decadal census data. We use diffusion mapping to study the 181,408 Output Areas in England and Wales, which allows us to decompose the feature…

We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a…

Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to…

The Brexit referendum took place in the UK in June, 2016. The unweighted percentage of leavers over the whole population was 51.9%. In this paper, first, we demonstrate that a 52%-48% split represents only a difference that is not…

Important game-changer economic events and transformations cause uncertainties that may affect investment decisions, capital flows, international trade, and macroeconomic variables. One such major transformation is Brexit, which refers to…

A mathematical analysis of the distribution of voting power in the Council of the European Union operating according to the Treaty of Lisbon is presented. We study the effects of Brexit on the voting power of the remaining members, measured…

Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…