相关论文: On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: rob…

In this paper we criticize the robustness measure traditionally employed to assess the performance of machine learning models deployed in adversarial settings. To mitigate the limitations of robustness, we introduce a new measure called…

Adversarially robust learning aims to design algorithms that are robust to small adversarial perturbations on input variables. Beyond the existing studies on the predictive performance to adversarial samples, our goal is to understand…

Model uncertainty has been one prominent issue both in the theory of risk measures and in practice such as financial risk management and regulation. Motivated by this observation, in this paper, we take a new perspective to describe the…

Financial institutions have to allocate so-called "economic capital" in order to guarantee solvency to their clients and counter parties. Mathematically speaking, any methodology of allocating capital is a "risk measure", i.e. a function…

Portfolio diversification, traditionally measured through asset correlations and volatilitybased metrics, is fundamental to managing financial risk. However, existing diversification metrics often overlook non-numerical relationships…

We consider economic obstacles that limit the reliability and accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR). Investors who manage large market transactions should take into account the impact of the randomness of large trade volumes on predictions of…

Estimation of structure, such as in variable selection, graphical modelling or cluster analysis is notoriously difficult, especially for high-dimensional data. We introduce stability selection. It is based on subsampling in combination with…

We incorporate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) quantity into a generalized class of Pickands estimators. By introducing CVaR, the newly developed estimators not only retain the desirable properties of consistency, location, and scale…

In this paper we extend temporal difference policy evaluation algorithms to performance criteria that include the variance of the cumulative reward. Such criteria are useful for risk management, and are important in domains such as finance…

In this paper, we propose a novel association measure for longitudinal studies based on the traditional definition of relative risk. In a Markovian fashion, such a proposal takes into account the information content regarding the previous…

In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities…

Based on existing ideas in the field of imprecise probabilities, we present a new approach for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a generative probabilistic classifier. We call this approach robustness…

Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We…

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Many systems contain latent variables that make their dynamics partially unidentifiable or cause distribution shifts in the observed statistics between offline and online data. However, existing control techniques often assume access to…

Runtime monitoring is commonly used to detect the violation of desired properties in safety critical cyber-physical systems by observing its executions. Bauer et al. introduced an influential framework for monitoring Linear Temporal Logic…

This paper introduces a likelihood ratio (LR)-type test that possesses the robustness properties of \(C(\alpha)\)-type procedures in an extremum estimation setting. The test statistic is constructed by applying separate adjustments to the…

Systemic risk measures such as CoVaR, CoES and MES are widely-used in finance, macroeconomics and by regulatory bodies. Despite their importance, we show that they fail to be elicitable and identifiable. This renders forecast comparison and…

This paper proposes a new robust smooth-threshold estimating equation to select important variables and automatically estimate parameters for high dimensional longitudinal data. A novel working correlation matrix is proposed to capture…