相关论文: Macro vs. Micro Methods in Non-Life Claims Reservi…

In some estimation problems, especially in applications dealing with information theory, signal processing and biology, theory provides us with additional information allowing us to restrict the parameter space to a finite number of points.…

In this paper a comparison between first order microscopic and macroscopic differential models of crowd dynamics is established for an increasing number $N$ of pedestrians. The novelty is the fact of considering massive agents, namely…

Increasing practical interest has been shown in regression problems where the errors, or disturbances, are centred in a way that reflects particular characteristics of the mechanism that generated the data. In economics this occurs in…

Studying Binomial and Gaussian return dynamics in discrete time, we show how excess volatility can be traded to create growth. We test our results on real world data to confirm the observed model phenomena while also highlighting implicit…

It is common for researchers to record long, multiple time series from experiments or calculations. But sometimes there are no good models for the systems or no applicable mathematical theorems that can tell us when there are basic…

Predicting the timing and occurrence of events is a major focus of data science applications, especially in the context of biomedical research. Performance for models estimating these outcomes, often referred to as time-to-event or survival…

Estimating the size of an elusive target population is of prominent interest in many areas in the life and social sciences. Our aim is to provide an efficient and workable method to estimate the unknown population size, given the frequency…

The Pareto model is very popular in risk management, since simple analytical formulas can be derived for financial downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) or reinsurance premiums and related quantities (Large Claim Index,…

This work is entirely devoted to compare the largest claims from two heterogeneous portfolios. It is assumed that the claim amounts in an insurance portfolio are nonnegative absolutely continuous random variables and belong to a general…

This paper introduces a unified micro-level stochastic framework for the joint modeling of loss reserves (RBNS), incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves, and unearned premium risk under dependence, inflation, and discounting. The proposed…

The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…

We investigate the efficiency of a marginal likelihood estimator where the product of the marginal posterior distributions is used as an importance-sampling function. The approach is generally applicable to multi-block parameter vector…

Reservoir Computing is an emerging machine learning framework which is a versatile option for utilising physical systems for computation. In this paper, we demonstrate how a single node reservoir, made of a simple electronic circuit, can be…

This paper derives a novel representation of the exponential discounting model that allows one to assess departures from the model via a measure of efficiency. The approach uses a revealed preference methodology that does not make any…

Economic model predictive control has been proposed as a means for solving the unit loading and unit allocation problem in multi-chiller cooling plants. The adjective economic stems from the use of financial cost due to electricity…

This paper is concerned with learning decision makers' preferences using data on observed choices from a finite set of risky alternatives. We propose a discrete choice model with unobserved heterogeneity in consideration sets and in…

In auction and matching markets, estimating the welfare effects of demand-side treatments is challenging because of spillovers through the mechanism. We develop a quasi-experimental approach that avoids parametric assumptions typically…

When is keeping a memory of observations worthwhile? We use hidden Markov models to look at phase transitions that emerge when comparing state estimates in systems with discrete states and noisy observations. We infer the underlying state…

We compare numerically the performance of reversible and non-reversible Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for high dimensional oil reservoir problems; because of the nature of the problem at hand, the target measures from which we sample…

Loss reserving generally focuses on identifying a single model that can generate superior predictive performance. However, different loss reserving models specialise in capturing different aspects of loss data. This is recognised in…