相关论文: Step by Step to Peace in Syria

I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict "externalizes" (i.e. spreads to another country by creating an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a…

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual within a given…

There is little doubt about whether social networks play a role in modern protests. This agreement has triggered an entire research avenue, in which social structure and content analysis have been central --but are typically exploited…

The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a…

The underlying reasons behind modern terrorism are seemingly complex and intangible. Despite diverse causal mechanisms, research has shown that there exists general statistical patterns at the global scale that can shed light on human…

Europe's contemporary political landscape has been shaped by massive shifts in recent decades caused by geopolitical upheavals such as Brexit and now, COVID-19. The way in which policy makers respond to the current pandemic could have large…

Turkey hosts almost 3.5M refugees and has to face a humanitarian emergency of unprecedented levels. We use mobile phone data to map the mobility patterns of both Turkish and Syrian refugees, and use these patterns to build data-driven…

This paper explores the spatial and temporal diffusion of political violence in North and West Africa. It does so by endeavoring to represent the mental landscape that lives in the back of a group leader's mind as he contemplates strategic…

Diverse sociocultural influences in rapidly growing dense urban areas may induce strain on civil services and reduce the resilience of those areas to exogenous and endogenous shocks. We present a novel approach with foundations in computer…

We propose a novel model for refugee housing respecting the preferences of the accepting community and refugees themselves. In particular, we are given a topology representing the local community, a set of inhabitants occupying some…

Militarised conflict is one of the risks that have a significant impact on society. Militarised Interstate Dispute (MID) is defined as an outcome of interstate interactions, which result on either peace or conflict. Effective prediction of…

In this paper, I empirically investigate how the openness of political institutions to diverse representation can impact conflict-related violence. By exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the number of councillors in Colombian…

The detection and quantification of conflict through remote sensing modalities represents a challenging but crucial aspect of human rights monitoring. In this work we demonstrate how utilizing multi-modal data sources can help build a…

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is a dominant insurgent group operating in Iraq and Syria that rose to prominence when it took over Mosul in June, 2014. In this paper, we present a data-driven approach to analyzing this group…

We introduce a two-variable model to describe spatial polarization, radicalization, and conflict. Individuals in the model harbor a continuous belief variable as well as a discrete radicalization level expressing their tolerance to…

This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…

This article examines the political consequences of terrorism in Burkina Faso. Using a dataset combining geolocated terrorist events from ACLED (from 2015 to 2024) with public opinion data from Afrobarometer, I compare the effect of…

This paper discusses the effect of sequential conflict resolution maneuvers of an infinite aircraft flow through a finite control volume. Aircraft flow models are utilized to simulate traffic flows and determine stability. Pseudo-random…

Extreme weather events are projected to intensify global migration, increase resource competition, and amplify socio-spatial phenomena, including intergroup conflicts, socioeconomic inequalities, and unplanned displacements, among others.…