相关论文: A regional compound Poisson process for hurricane …

We propose a model-based geostatistical approach to deal with regionalized compositions. We combine the additive-log-ratio transformation with multivariate geostatistical models whose covariance matrix is adapted to take into account the…

The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…

We present a method to generate contingency tables that follow loglinear models with prescribed marginal probabilities and dependence structures. We make use of (loglinear) Poisson regression, where the dependence structures, described…

Almost 90% of the major power outages in the US are caused due to hurricanes. Due to the highly uncertain nature of hurricanes in both spatial and temporal dimensions, it is essential to quantify the effect of such hurricanes on a power…

We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial extremum estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time series models. We show the proposed estimators are consistent and follow normal distributions in…

Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…

We study a dynamic model of a non-life insurance portfolio. The foundation of the model is a compound Poisson process that represents the claims side of the insurer. To introduce clusters of claims appearing, e.g. with catastrophic events,…

Robust sensing and perception in adverse weather conditions remain one of the biggest challenges for realizing reliable autonomous vehicle mobility services. Prior work has established that rainfall rate is a useful measure for the…

This paper introduces a novel family of geostatistical models designed to capture complex features beyond the reach of traditional Gaussian processes. The proposed family, termed the Poisson-Gaussian Mixture Process (POGAMP), is…

Structural break identification methods are an important tool for evaluating the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we introduce a unified probabilistic framework for detecting structural breaks with unknown…

Storm surge and waves are responsible for a substantial portion of tropical and extratropical cyclones-related damages. While high-fidelity numerical models have significantly advanced the simulation accuracy of storm surge and waves, they…

Computer models are used to model complex processes in various disciplines. Often, a key source of uncertainty in the behavior of complex computer models is uncertainty due to unknown model input parameters. Statistical computer model…

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully…

For an autonomous vehicle to operate reliably within real-world traffic scenarios, it is imperative to assess the repercussions of its prospective actions by anticipating the uncertain intentions exhibited by other participants in the…

One measurement modality for rainfall is a fixed location rain gauge. However, extreme rainfall, flooding, and other climate extremes often occur at larger spatial scales and affect more than one location in a community. For example, in…

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones remains a major challenge for both numerical weather prediction and emerging artificial intelligence weather prediction systems. While recent global AI models have demonstrated strong skill in…

Real-time safety analysis has become a hot research topic as it can reveal the relationship between real-time traffic characteristics and crash occurrence more accurately, and these results could be applied to improve active traffic…

The Poisson compound decision problem is a long-standing problem in statistics, where empirical Bayes methodologies are commonly used to estimate Poisson's means in static or batch domains. In this paper, we study the Poisson compound…

Generalizing earlier works of Delbaen & Haezendonck [5] as well as of [18] and [16] for given compound mixed renewal process S under a probability measure P, we characterize all those probability measures Q on the domain of P such that Q…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…