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Randomized Controlled Trials are one of the pillars of science; nevertheless, they rely on hand-crafted hypotheses and expensive analysis. Such constraints prevent causal effect estimation at scale, potentially anchoring on popular yet…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-07 Tommaso Mencattini , Riccardo Cadei , Francesco Locatello

Modern medical research demands specialized causal inference methods evaluating complex continuous-time dynamic treatment regimens using observational data. For instance, obtaining the causal effects of intravenous administration, a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-02 Haiyan Zhu , Yingchun Zhou

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-10-24 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore,…

Consider a situation with two treatments, the first of which is randomized but the second is not, and the multifactor version of this. Interest is in treatment effects, defined using standard factorial notation. We define estimators for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-09 Nicole E. Pashley , Kristen B. Hunter , Katy McKeough , Donald B. Rubin , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-31 Yuchen Ma , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

Randomized experiments on social networks pose statistical challenges, due to the possibility of interference between units. We propose new methods for estimating attributable treatment effects in such settings. The methods do not require…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-10-13 David S. Choi

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Andre F. Ribeiro , Frank Neffke , Ricardo Hausmann

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-22 Graham Van Goffrier , Lucas Maystre , Ciarán Gilligan-Lee

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

Estimating treatment effects in time series data presents a significant challenge, especially when the control group is always unobservable. For example, in analyzing the effects of Christmas on retail sales, we lack direct observation of…

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

In comparative effectiveness research, treated and control patients might have a different start of follow-up as treatment is often started later in the disease trajectory. This typically occurs when data from treated and controls are not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-10 Rik van Eekelen , Patrick M. M. Bossuyt , Nan van Geloven

This paper presents a framework for causal inference in the presence of censored data,where the failure time is marked by a continuous variable referred to as a mark.The mark is observed after treatment and is not meaningful when the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-20 Lianqiang Qu , Long Lv , Liuquan Sun

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

Reasoning about unpredicted change consists in explaining observations by events; we propose here an approach for explaining time-stamped observations by surprises, which are simple events consisting in the change of the truth value of a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-07-10 Florence Dupin de Saint-Cyr , Jérôme Lang

This paper studies settings where the analyst is interested in identifying and estimating the average \emph{direct} causal effect of a binary treatment on an outcome. We consider a setup in which the outcome realization does not get…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-01 Federico A. Bugni , Ivan A. Canay , Steve McBride