相关论文: Untangling Performance from Success

This paper develops metrics from a social network perspective that are directly translatable to the outcome of a basketball game. We extend a state-of-the-art multi-resolution stochastic process approach to modeling basketball by modeling…

In many countries and at European level, research policy increasingly focuses on 'excellent' researchers. The concept of excellence however is complex and multidimensional. For individual scholars it involves talents for innovative…

The predictive performance of any inferential model is critical to its practical success, but quantifying predictive performance is a subtle statistical problem. In this paper I show how the natural structure of any inferential problem…

We introduce the notion of performative power, which measures the ability of a firm operating an algorithmic system, such as a digital content recommendation platform, to cause change in a population of participants. We relate performative…

Machine learning and deep learning models are pivotal in educational contexts, particularly in predicting student success. Despite their widespread application, a significant gap persists in comprehending the factors influencing these…

How does our society appreciate the uniqueness of cultural products? This fundamental puzzle has intrigued scholars in many fields, including psychology, sociology, anthropology, and marketing. It has been theorized that cultural products…

We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from…

Customer Satisfaction is the most important factors in the industry irrespective of domain. Key Driver Analysis is a common practice in data science to help the business to evaluate the same. Understanding key features, which influence the…

Economic complexity measures aim to quantify the capability content or endowment of industries and territories; however, capabilities are not observable, and therefore cannot be directly used in the computations. We estimate such endowments…

Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…

We establish a general formula for the distribution of the score in table tennis. We use this formula to derive the probability distribution (and hence the expectation and variance) of the number of rallies necessary to achieve any given…

A dynamic memory model is proposed in which an agent ``learns'' a new agent by means of recommendation. The agents can also ``remember'' and ``forget''. The memory size is decreased while the population size is kept constant. ``Fame''…

The well-studied problem of statistical rank aggregation has been applied to comparing sports teams, information retrieval, and most recently to data generated by human judgment. Such human-generated rankings may be substantially different…

Topic popularity prediction in social networks has drawn much attention recently. Various elegant models have been proposed for this issue. However, different datasets and evaluation metrics they use lead to low comparability. So far there…

Estimating the capabilities, or inputs of production, that drive and constrain the economic development of urban areas has remained a challenging goal. We posit that capabilities are instantiated in the complexity and sophistication of…

We introduce a new metric for measuring how well a model personalizes to a user's specific preferences. We define personalization as a weighting between performance on user specific data and performance on a more general global dataset that…

Many complex phenomena, from the selection of traits in biological systems to hierarchy formation in social and economic entities, show signs of competition and heterogeneous performance in the temporal evolution of their components, which…

In competitive sports it is often very hard to quantify the performance. A player to score or overtake may depend on only millesimal of seconds or millimeters. In racquet sports like tennis, table tennis and squash many events will occur in…

Inequality in human success may emerge through endogenous success-breeds-success dynamics but may also originate in pre-existing differences in talent. It is widely recognized that the skew in static frequency distributions of success…

An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in a wide range of domains. Here we propose a deep learning attention mechanism to model the process through which…