相关论文: Untangling Performance from Success

Humanity has been fascinated by the pursuit of fortune since time immemorial, and many successful outcomes benefit from strokes of luck. But success is subject to complexity, uncertainty, and change - and at times becoming increasingly…

This paper investigates the Tennis Momentum Model (TMM), which aims to enhance the understanding of match dynamics by integrating key factors such as efficiency, historical scoring probabilities, and real-time scoring data. The model is…

Popularity dynamics in social media depend on a complex interplay of social influence between users and popularity-based recommendations that are provided by the platforms. In this work, we introduce a discrete-time dynamical system to…

Performativity of predictions refers to the phenomenon where prediction-informed decisions influence the very targets they aim to predict -- a dynamic commonly observed in policy-making, social sciences, and economics. In this paper, we…

This study explores the concept of prominence as a candidate trait, understood as the perceived worthiness of attention candidates elicit from regular citizens in the context of low information elections. It proposes two dimensions of…

Knowledge tracing aims to model students' past answer sequences to track the change in their knowledge acquisition during exercise activities and to predict their future learning performance. Most existing approaches ignore the fact that…

Deployed supervised machine learning models make predictions that interact with and influence the world. This phenomenon is called performative prediction by Perdomo et al. (ICML 2020). It is an ongoing challenge to understand the influence…

We study the relationship between performance and practice by analyzing the activity of many players of a casual online game. We find significant heterogeneity in the improvement of player performance, given by score, and address this by…

This work focuses on the nature of visibility in societies where the behaviours of humans and algorithms influence each other - termed algorithmically infused societies. We propose a quantitative measure of visibility, with implications and…

Complex systems are often characterized by large-scale hierarchical organizations. Whether the prominent elements, at the top of the hierarchy, share and control resources or avoid one another lies at the heart of a system's global…

This paper explores the concept of "momentum" in sports competitions through the use of the TOPSIS model and 0-1 logistic regression model. First, the TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the performance of two tennis players, with…

In the recent article Janosov, Battiston, & Sinatra report that they separated the inputs of talent and luck in creative careers. They build on the previous work of Sinatra et al which introduced the Q-model. Under the model the popularity…

With a growing number of social apps, people have become increasingly willing to share their everyday photos and events on social media platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, and WeChat. In social media data mining, post popularity…

In many prediction problems, the predictive model affects the distribution of the prediction target. This phenomenon is known as performativity and is often caused by the behavior of individuals with vested interests in the outcome of the…

Probabilistic properties of tennis scoring systems are examined and compared with best-of-K systems. A model, where each player has his/her own probability of winning his/her service point and which remains invariant for the duration of the…

Thanks to the availability of large online data sets, it has become possible to quantify success in different fields of human endeavour. The study presented here contributes to this literature in evaluating the effect of social media…

Indirect reciprocity is a key explanation for the exceptional magnitude of cooperation among humans. This literature suggests that a large proportion of human cooperation is driven by social norms and individuals' incentives to maintain a…

In recent years, analytics has started to revolutionize the game of basketball: quantitative analyses of the game inform team strategy, management of player health and fitness, and how teams draft, sign, and trade players. In this review,…

This paper presents a data-driven mean-field approach to model the popularity dynamics of users seeking public attention, i.e., influencers. We propose a novel analytical model that integrates individual activity patterns, expertise in…

Recent discussion of the success of feature selection methods has argued that focusing on a relatively small number of features has been counterproductive. Instead, it is suggested, the number of significant features can be in the thousands…