相关论文: Semi-Markov Arnason-Schwarz models

Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose…

Markov state models (MSMs) have been widely used to analyze computer simulations of various biomolecular systems. They can capture conformational transitions much slower than an average or maximal length of a single molecular dynamics (MD)…

With the increasing ubiquity of safety-critical autonomous systems operating in uncertain environments, there is a need for mathematical methods for formal verification of stochastic models. Towards formally verifying properties of…

When clustering molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories into a few metastable conformational states, the Markov state models (MSMs) assumption of timescale separation between fast intrastate fluctuations and rarely occurring interstate…

Semi-Markov processes are Markovian processes in which the firing time of the transitions is modelled by probabilistic distributions over positive reals interpreted as the probability of firing a transition at a certain moment in time. In…

Under certain conditions, the dynamics of coarse-grained models of solvated proteins can be described using a Markov state model, which tracks the evolution of populations of configurations. The transition rates among states that appear in…

In the frame of designing a knowledge discovery system, we have developed stochastic models based on high-order hidden Markov models. These models are capable to map sequences of data into a Markov chain in which the transitions between the…

Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…

In a specific class of open quantum systems with finite and fixed numbers of collapsed quantum states, the semi-Markov process method is used to calculate the large deviations of the first passage time statistics. The core formula is an…

Markov state models (MSMs) are widely employed to analyze the kinetics of complex systems. But despite their effectiveness in many applications, MSMs are prone to systematic or statistical errors, often exacerbated by suboptimal…

We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

State-space models are commonly used to describe different forms of ecological data. We consider the case of count data with observation errors. For such data the system process is typically multi-dimensional consisting of coupled Markov…

Aoristic data can be described by a marked point process in time in which the points cannot be observed directly but are known to lie in observable intervals, the marks. We consider Bayesian state estimation for the latent points when the…

We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent…

Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…

Molecular simulations as well as single molecule experiments have been widely analyzed in terms order parameters, the latter representing candidate probes for the relevant degrees of freedom. Notwithstanding this approach is very intuitive,…

We consider the modeling of data generated by a latent continuous-time Markov jump process with a state space of finite but unknown dimensions. Typically in such models, the number of states has to be pre-specified, and Bayesian inference…

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

We consider an evolving system for which a sequence of observations is being made, with each observation revealing additional information about current and past states of the system. We suppose each observation is made without error, but…

In this paper we introduce a new approach to discrete-time semi-Markov decision processes based on the sojourn time process. Different characterizations of discrete-time semi-Markov processes are exploited and decision processes are…