相关论文: Information Criteria for Multivariate CARMA Proces…

Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects…

We study model selection and model averaging in generalized additive partial linear models (GAPLMs). Polynomial spline is used to approximate nonparametric functions. The corresponding estimators of the linear parameters are shown to be…

For predictive evaluation based on quasi-posterior distributions, we develop a new information criterion, the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC. PCIC generalises the widely applicable information criterion WAIC so as to…

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a model selection criterion widely used in practical applications. The AIC is an estimator of the log-likelihood expected value, and measures the discrepancy between the true model and the estimated…

In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the…

Linear time series modelling is dominated by the use of purely autoregressive models even though incorporating moving average components can greatly improve parsimony. We present a convex formulation for vector-ARMA system identification…

We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…

Non-concave penalized maximum likelihood methods, such as the Bridge, the SCAD, and the MCP, are widely used because they not only do parameter estimation and variable selection simultaneously but also have a high efficiency as compared to…

Estimating parameters of functional ARMA, GARCH and invertible processes requires estimating lagged covariance and cross-covariance operators of Cartesian product Hilbert space-valued processes. Asymptotic results have been derived in…

As is the case for many curved exponential families, the computation of maximum likelihood estimates in a multivariate normal model with a Kronecker covariance structure is typically carried out with an iterative algorithm, specifically, a…

Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) are given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes. For particular cases already studied in the literature (for instance univariate…

We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…

A new likelihood based AR approximation is given for ARMA models. The usual algorithms for the computation of the likelihood of an ARMA model require $O(n)$ flops per function evaluation. Using our new approximation, an algorithm is…

We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…

We present QARMA, an efficient novel parallel algorithm for mining all Quantitative Association Rules in large multidimensional datasets where items are required to have at least a single common attribute to be specified in the rules single…

This paper derives a Minimum Message Length (MML) criterion for the model selection of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. The MML87 performances on the ARMA model compared with other well known model selection…

This work is devoted to functional ARMA$(p, q)$ processes and approximating vector models based on functional PCA in the context of prediction. After deriving sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationary solution to both the…

Unmeasured covariates constitute one of the important problems in causal inference. Even if there are some unmeasured covariates, some instrumental variable methods such as a two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimator, or a…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Claeskens and Hjort (2003) constructed the focused information criterion (FIC) and developed frequentist model averaging methods using maximum likelihood estimators assuming the observations to be independent and identically distributed.…