相关论文: Relax, Tensors Are Here: Dependencies in Internati…

Bayesian neural networks were used to model the relationship between input parameters, Democracy, Allies, Contingency, Distance, Capability, Dependency and Major Power, and the output parameter which is either peace or conflict. The…

We introduce and solve a general model of dynamic response under external perturbations. This model captures a wide range of systems out of equilibrium including Ising models of physical systems, social opinions, and population genetics.…

In this paper we develop a scientific approach to control inter-country conflict. This system makes use of a neural network and a feedback control approach. It was found that by controlling the four controllable inputs: Democracy,…

This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…

The concept of emergence is a powerful concept to explain very complex behaviour by simple underling rules. Existing approaches of producing emergent collective behaviour have many limitations making them unable to account for the…

Dynamic network data have become ubiquitous in social network analysis, with new information becoming available that captures when friendships form, when corporate transactions happen and when countries interact with each other. Flexible…

Coalition forming is investigated among countries, which are coupled with short range interactions, under the influence of external fields produced by the existence of global alliances. The model rests on the natural model of coalition…

From critical infrastructure, to physiology and the human brain, complex systems rarely occur in isolation. Instead, the functioning of nodes in one system often promotes or suppresses the functioning of nodes in another. Despite advances…

Aggregated phenomena in social sciences and economics are highly dependent on the way individuals interact. To help understanding the interplay between socio-economic activities and underlying social networks, this paper studies a…

A new class of graphical models capturing the dependence structure of events that occur in time is proposed. The graphs represent so-called local independences, meaning that the intensities of certain types of events are independent of some…

A two-dimensional small-world type network, subject to spatial prisoners' dilemma dynamics and containing an influential node defined as a special node with a finite density of directed random links to the other nodes in the network, is…

In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The…

A general model for opinion formation and competition, like in ideological struggles is formulated. The underlying set is a closed one, like a country but in which the population size is variable in time. Several ideologies compete to…

The critical infrastructures of the nation such as the power grid and the communication network are highly interdependent. Also, it has been observed that there exists complex interdependent relationships between individual entities of the…

The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…

In the paper a simple discrete dynamical model for dynamics of two antagonistic agents (opponents) under iterated sanctions and counter-sanctions is proposed. The model is inspired with Osipov-Lanchester model for combats. Simple stability…

The execution of an event in a complex and distributed system where the dependencies vary during the evolution of the system can be represented in many ways, and one of them is to use Context-Dependent Event structures. Event structures are…

This work explores models of opinion dynamics with opinion-dependent connectivity. Our starting point is that individuals have limited capabilities to engage in interactions with their peers. Motivated by this observation, we propose a…

Stability and analysis of multi-agent network systems with state-dependent switching typologies have been a fundamental and longstanding challenge in control, social sciences, and many other related fields. These already complex systems…

When perturbation or unexpected events do occur, agents need protocols for repairing or reforming the supply chain. Unfortunate contingency could increase too much the cost of performance, while breaching the current contract may be more…