相关论文: An analysis of the vectorial capacity using moment…

Stochastic modeling of disease dynamics has had a long tradition. Among the first epidemic models including a spatial structure in the form of local interactions is the contact process. In this article we investigate two extensions of the…

The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the…

This paper motivates the use of random-bridges -- stochastic processes conditioned to take target distributions at fixed timepoints -- in the realm of generative modelling. Herein, random-bridges can act as stochastic transports between two…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

These lecture notes introduce the statistical analysis of continuous-time generative models built from Markov dynamics. We begin with the stochastic-calculus foundations of score-based diffusion models, including time reversal, score…

We consider the duration of discussions in face-to-face contacts and propose a stochastic model to describe it. It is based on the points of a Levy flight where the duration of each contact corresponds to the size of the clusters produced…

When modeling a social dynamics with an agent-oriented approach, researchers have to describe the structure of interactions within the population. Given the intractability of extensive network collecting, they rely on random network…

We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…

We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…

Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

In this paper we study the problem of generation of dependent random variables, known as the "coordination capacity" [4,5], in multiterminal networks. In this model $m$ nodes of the network are observing i.i.d. repetitions of $X^{(1)}$,…

We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…

This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the branching process are aborted independently with a…

We present a method aimed to compute the communicability (broadcast and receive) of nodes through causal paths in temporal networks. The method considers all possible combinations of chronologically ordered products of adjacency matrices of…

We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…

We study the spreading of cooperative infections in an empirical temporal network of contacts between people, including health care workers and patients, in a hospital. The system exhibits a phase transition leading to one or several…

In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…