相关论文: Objective Bayesian Inference for Bilateral Data

In causal inference, sensitivity analysis is important to assess the robustness of study conclusions to key assumptions. We perform sensitivity analysis of the assumption that missing outcomes are missing completely at random. We follow a…

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

A novel information-theoretic approach is proposed to assess the global practical identifiability of Bayesian statistical models. Based on the concept of conditional mutual information, an estimate of information gained for each model…

We propose a Bayesian Sequential procedure to test hypotheses concerning the Relative Risk between two specific treatments based on the binary data obtained from the two-arm clinical trial. Our development is based on the optimal sequential…

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

In this work, we derive two-sided a posteriori error estimates for the dual-weighted residual (DWR) method. We consider both single and multiple goal functionals. Using a saturation assumption, we derive lower bounds yielding the efficiency…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used to model dynamic systems appearing in engineering, physics, biomedical sciences and many other fields. These equations contain unknown parameters, say $\theta$ of physical significance which…

Objective priors for sequential experiments are considered. Common priors, such as the Jeffreys prior and the reference prior, will typically depend on the stopping rule used for the sequential experiment. New expressions for reference…

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Prior distributions elicited for modelling the natural fluctuations or the uncertainty on parameters of Bayesian fishery population models, can be chosen among a vast range of statistical laws. Since the statistical framework is defined by…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Bayesian doubly robust (DR) causal inference faces a fundamental dilemma: joint modeling of outcome and propensity score suffers from the feedback problem where outcome information contaminates propensity score estimation, while two-step…

Biased sampling designs can be highly efficient when studying rare (binary) or low variability (continuous) endpoints. We consider longitudinal data settings in which the probability of being sampled depends on a repeatedly measured…

This paper proposes a simple, novel, and fully-Bayesian approach for causal inference in partially linear models with high-dimensional control variables. Off-the-shelf machine learning methods can introduce biases in the causal parameter…

We study the estimation of causal effects on group-level parameters identified from microdata (e.g., child penalties). We demonstrate that standard one-step methods (such as pooled OLS and IV regressions) are generally inconsistent due to…

In this paper we develop a general framework for quantifying how binary risk factors jointly influence a binary outcome. Our key result is an additive expansion of odds ratios as a sum of marginal effects and interaction terms of varying…