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This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2021-07-21 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira , Javier López-Santiago , Gustau Camps-Valls

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is computationally intensive for complex model simulators. To exploit expensive simulations, data-resampling via bootstrapping can be employed to obtain many artificial datasets at little cost.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-07-05 Umberto Picchini , Richard G. Everitt

The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-08-07 Marko Järvenpää , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables parameter inference for complex physical systems in cases where the true likelihood function is unknown, unavailable, or computationally too expensive. It relies on the forward simulation of…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2019-08-13 E. E. O. Ishida , S. D. P. Vitenti , M. Penna-Lima , J. Cisewski , R. S. de Souza , A. M. M. Trindade , E. Cameron , V. C. Busti

There is an increasing amount of literature focused on Bayesian computational methods to address problems with intractable likelihood. One approach is a set of algorithms known as Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods. One of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-10-27 Weixuan Zhu , Juan Miguel Marin , Fabrizio Leisen

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-04-01 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Elena Ehrlich

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-05-17 Evgeny Levi , Radu V. Craiu

Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-11-08 Umberto Picchini , Massimiliano Tamborrino

Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-12-03 Suzanne Thornton , Wentao Li , Min-ge Xie

We analyze the behavior of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) when the model generating the simulated data differs from the actual data generating process; i.e., when the data simulator in ABC is misspecified. We demonstrate both…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-12-17 David T. Frazier , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can be used for model fitting when the likelihood function is intractable but simulating from the model is feasible. However, even a single evaluation of a complex model may take several hours,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-19 Marko Järvenpää , Michael Gutmann , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Computationally expensive simulators, implementing mathematical models in computer codes, are commonly approximated using statistical emulators. We develop and assess novel emulation methods for systems best modelled via a chain, series or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-26 Samuel E. Jackson , David C. Woods

Given the complexity of modern cosmological parameter inference where we are faced with non-Gaussian data and noise, correlated systematics and multi-probe correlated data sets, the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method is a…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2017-03-08 Elise Jennings , Maeve Madigan

We consider the application of approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in the context of medical imaging data. We consider the parameter estimation of compartmental models in PET imaging analysis, and provide a simple ABC algorithm for its…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-08-01 Y. Fan , S. R. Meikle , G. Angelis , A. Sitek

We research relations between optimal transport theory (OTT) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) possibly connected to relevant metrics defined on probability measures. Those of ABC are computational methods based on Bayesian…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-05-06 Marco Tarsia , Antonietta Mira , Daniele Cassani

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-06-14 Johan Dahlin , Mattias Villani , Thomas B. Schön

This Chapter, "Overview of Approximate Bayesian Computation", is to appear as the first chapter in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and concepts behind ABC methods with many…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-02-28 S. A. Sisson , Y. Fan , M. A. Beaumont

We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-10-25 Umberto Picchini , Adeline Samson

ABC algorithms are notoriously expensive in computing time, as they require simulating many complete artificial datasets from the model. We advocate in this paper a "divide and conquer" approach to ABC, where we split the likelihood into n…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-12-02 Simon Barthelmé , Nicolas Chopin , Vincent Cottet