相关论文: A comparison of emulation methods for Approximate …

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown…

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard…

This Chapter, "A Guide to General-Purpose ABC Software", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). We present general-purpose software to perform Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) as…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

We propose a novel approach for solving inverse-problems with high-dimensional inputs and an expensive forward mapping. It leverages joint deep generative modelling to transfer the original problem spaces to a lower dimensional latent…

We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…

This invited feature article introduces and provides an extensive simulation study of a new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework for estimating the posterior distribution and the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the…

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Finite mixture models are used in statistics and other disciplines, but inference for mixture models is challenging due, in part, to the multimodality of the likelihood function and the so-called label switching problem. We propose…

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

This paper presents a novel approach to level set estimation for any function/simulation with an arbitrary number of continuous inputs and arbitrary numbers of continuous responses. We present a method that uses existing data from computer…

The choice of the summary statistics used in Bayesian inference and in particular in ABC algorithms has bearings on the validation of the resulting inference. Those statistics are nonetheless customarily used in ABC algorithms without…

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

We harness the power of Bayesian emulation techniques, designed to aid the analysis of complex computer models, to examine the structure of complex Bayesian analyses themselves. These techniques facilitate robust Bayesian analyses and/or…

Simulation has become a standard tool in statistics because it may be the only tool available for analysing some classes of probabilistic models. We review in this paper simulation tools that have been specifically derived to address…

We consider the asymptotic properties of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for the realistic case of summary statistics with heterogeneous rates of convergence. We allow some statistics to converge faster than the ABC tolerance, other…

The analysis of computer models can be aided by the construction of surrogate models, or emulators, that statistically model the numerical computer model. Increasingly, computer models are becoming stochastic, yielding different outputs…

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to…

This Chapter, "ABC Samplers", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and algorithms used to sample from the ABC approximation to the posterior distribution, including…