相关论文: A hidden Markov approach to disability insurance

In clinical practice and biomedical research, measurements are often collected sparsely and irregularly in time while the data acquisition is expensive and inconvenient. Examples include measurements of spine bone mineral density, cancer…

Due to the ease of modern data collection, applied statisticians often have access to a large set of covariates that they wish to relate to some observed outcome. Generalized linear models (GLMs) offer a particularly interpretable framework…

Large-scale biobanks are being collected around the world in efforts to better understand human health and risk factors for disease. They often survey hundreds of thousands of individuals, combining questionnaires with clinical, genetic,…

This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state…

In the last few decades, the study of ordinal data in which the variable of interest is not exactly observed but only known to be in a specific ordinal category has become important. In Psychometrics such variables are analysed under the…

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are popular and flexible models for non-Gaussian spatial data. They are useful for spatial interpolations as well as for fitting regression models that account for spatial dependence, and are…

Predicting relative risk (RR) of spatial clusters is a complex task in public health that can be achieved through various statistical and machine-learning methods for different time intervals. However, high-resolution longitudinal data is…

We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…

Many real-world problems encountered in several disciplines deal with the modeling of time-series containing different underlying dynamical regimes, for which probabilistic approaches are very often employed. In this paper we describe…

Nowadays insurers have to account for potentially complex dependence between risks. In the field of loss reserving, there are many parametric and non-parametric models attempting to capture dependence between business lines. One common…

Inference in hidden Markov model has been challenging in terms of scalability due to dependencies in the observation data. In this paper, we utilize the inherent memory decay in hidden Markov models, such that the forward and backward…

Prediction of diabetes and its various complications has been studied in a number of settings, but a comprehensive overview of problem setting for diabetes prediction and care management has not been addressed in the literature. In this…

Current approaches to fair valuation in insurance often follow a two-step approach, combining quadratic hedging with application of a risk measure on the residual liability, to obtain a cost-of-capital margin. In such approaches, the…

Data on functional disability are of widespread policy interest in the United States, especially with respect to planning for Medicare and Social Security for a growing population of elderly adults. We consider an extract of functional…

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) can predict the future value of a time series based on its current and previous values, making it a powerful algorithm for handling various types of time series. Numerous studies have explored the improvement…

We consider likelihood-based two-step estimation of latent variable models, in which just the measurement model is estimated in the first step and the measurement parameters are then fixed at their estimated values in the second step where…

The primary objective of this scholarly work is to develop two estimation procedures - maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of trimmed moments (MTM) - for the mean and variance of lognormal insurance payment severity data sets…

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…