相关论文: A prediction interval for a function-valued foreca…

We consider nonparametric prediction with multiple covariates, in particular categorical or functional predictors, or a mixture of both. The method proposed bases on an extension of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator where a kernel function is…

We consider the prediction problem of a continuous-time stochastic process on an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past. The approach we adopt is based on functional kernel nonparametric regression estimation techniques where…

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

In this paper, we introduce Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Forecasting (MMMF), a novel and general self-supervised learning framework for time series forecasting with known future information. In many real-world forecasting scenarios, some…

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

Inference for prediction errors is critical in time series forecasting pipelines. However, providing statistically meaningful uncertainty intervals for prediction errors remains relatively under-explored. Practitioners often resort to…

We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional…

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

We are interested in renewable estimations and algorithms for nonparametric models with streaming data. In our method, the nonparametric function of interest is expressed through a functional depending on a weight function and a conditional…

Modeling non-stationary processes, where statistical properties vary across the input domain, is a critical challenge in machine learning; yet most scalable methods rely on a simplifying assumption of stationarity. This forces a difficult…

With the growing complexity and dynamics of the mobile communication networks, accurately predicting key system parameters, such as channel state information (CSI), user location, and network traffic, has become essential for a wide range…

Functional time series whose sample elements are recorded sequentially over time are frequently encountered with increasing technology. Recent studies have shown that analyzing and forecasting of functional time series can be performed…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

The present contribution offers a simple methodology for the obtainment of data-driven interval forecasting models by combining pairs of quantile regressions. Those regressions are created without the usage of the non-differentiable…

We construct long-term prediction intervals for time-aggregated future values of univariate economic time series. We propose computational adjustments of the existing methods to improve coverage probability under a small sample constraint.…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

Accelerated failure time (AFT) models provide a direct and interpretable time-scale description of covariate effects in lifetime data analysis, but classical formulations rely on linear predictors and are therefore limited in their ability…