相关论文: BayesDccGarch - An Implementation of Multivariate …

In the financial services industry, forecasting the risk factor distribution conditional on the history and the current market environment is the key to market risk modeling in general and value at risk (VaR) model in particular. As one of…

Spatial statistical models are commonly used in geographical scenarios to ensure spatial variation is captured effectively. However, spatial models and cluster algorithms can be complicated and expensive. This paper pursues three main…

The R package stochvol provides a fully Bayesian implementation of heteroskedasticity modeling within the framework of stochastic volatility. It utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers to conduct inference by obtaining draws from…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations…

Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) are introduced as dependence models for the joint innovation distribution of multivariate time series (MTS). Following the popular copula-GARCH approach for modeling dependent MTS data, a…

A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…

Modeling and forecasting of dynamically varying covariances have received much attention in the literature. The two most widely used conditional covariances and correlations models are BEKK and DCC. In this paper, we advance a new method to…

We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…

We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…

The dirichletprocess package provides software for creating flexible Dirichlet process objects. Users can perform nonparametric Bayesian analysis using Dirichlet processes without the need to program their own inference algorithms. Instead,…

There has been increased interest in the use of historical data to formulate informative priors in regression models. While many such priors for incorporating historical data have been proposed, adoption is limited due to access to…

The matrixdist R package provides a comprehensive suite of tools for the statistical analysis of matrix distributions, including phase-type, inhomogeneous phase-type, discrete phase-type, and related multivariate distributions. This paper…

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated…

We consider goodness-of-fit methods for multivariate symmetric and asymmetric stable Paretian random vectors in arbitrary dimension. The methods are based on the empirical characteristic function and are implemented both in the i.i.d.…

This paper presents a new model called infinite mixtures of multivariate Gaussian processes, which can be used to learn vector-valued functions and applied to multitask learning. As an extension of the single multivariate Gaussian process,…

We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and…

How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al., (2022) introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating…

In multi-state life insurance, an adequate balance between analytic tractability, computational efficiency, and statistical flexibility is of great importance. This might explain the popularity of Markov chain modelling, where matrix…

Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series…