相关论文: Tail estimates for Markovian rough paths

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Archimedean copulas generated by Laplace transforms have been extensively studied in the literature, with much of the focus on tail dependence limited only to cases where the Laplace transforms exhibit regular variation with positive tail…

We survey some of the recent advances in mean estimation and regression function estimation. In particular, we describe sub-Gaussian mean estimators for possibly heavy-tailed data both in the univariate and multivariate settings. We focus…

Recently, Kenyon and Wilson introduced Dyck tilings, which are certain tilings of the region between two Dyck paths. The enumeration of Dyck tilings is related with hook formulas for forests and the combinatorics of Hermite polynomials. The…

Motivated by a bidimensional discrete-time risk model in insurance, we study the second-order asymptotics for two kinds of tail probabilities of the stochastic discounted value of aggregate net losses including two business lines. These are…

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by…

We consider local alignments without gaps of two independent Markov chains from a finite alphabet, and we derive sufficient conditions for the number of essentially different local alignments with a score exceeding a high threshold to be…

We offer a survey of recent results on covariance estimation for heavy-tailed distributions. By unifying ideas scattered in the literature, we propose user-friendly methods that facilitate practical implementation. Specifically, we…

In this paper non-asymptotic moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time polynomial martingale by means of martingale differences as a rule in the terms of unconditional and unconditional relative moments and…

Directed last passage percolation models on the plane, where one studies the weight as well as the geometry of optimizing paths (called polymers) in a field of i.i.d. weights, are paradigm examples of models in the KPZ universality class.…

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

We systematically study the moduli theory of symplectic varieties (in the sense of Beauville) which admit a resolution by an irreducible symplectic manifold. In particular, we prove an analog of Verbitsky's global Torelli theorem for the…

We consider deep neural networks in a Bayesian framework with a prior distribution sampling the network weights at random. Following a recent idea of Agapiou and Castillo (2023), who show that heavy-tailed prior distributions achieve…

This paper proposes a Mixture Density Network specifically designed for forecasting time series that exhibit locally explosive behavior. By incorporating skewed t-distributions as mixture components, our approach offers enhanced flexibility…

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

The Multivariate Extreme Value distributions have shown their usefulness in environmental studies, financial and insurance mathematics. The Logistic or Gumbel-Hougaard distribution is one of the oldest multivariate extreme value models and…

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

In [1], we proved the existence of solutions to reflected rough differential equations based on an idea of Euler approximation of the solutions which is due to Davie [6]. In this paper, we prove the existence theorem under weaker…

We study the tail bound of the emperical covariance of multivariate normal distribution. Following the work of (Gittens & Tropp, 2011), we provide a tail bound with a small constant.