相关论文: Intermittency and Obsolescence: a Croston Method W…
This paper investigates asymptotically optimal importance sampling (IS) schemes for pricing European call options under the Heston stochastic volatility model. We focus on two distinct rare-event regimes where standard Monte Carlo methods…
Time series analysis is used to understand and predict dynamic processes, including evolving demands in business, weather, markets, and biological rhythms. Exponential smoothing is used in all these domains to obtain simple interpretable…
A new stochastic control model for the long-run environmental management of rivers is mathematically and numerically analyzed, focusing on a modern sediment replenishment problem with unique nonsmooth and nonlinear properties. Rational…
This paper examines a continuous time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem with a stochastic differential utility preference of Epstein-Zin type for a robust investor, who worries about model misspecification and seeks…
Solving large tensor linear systems poses significant challenges due to the high volume of data stored, and it only becomes more challenging when some of the data is missing. Recently, Ma et al. showed that this problem can be tackled using…
High penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) introduces significant uncertainty and intermittency into microgrid operations, posing challenges to economic and reliable scheduling. To address this, this paper proposes an end-to-end…
This paper proposes a probabilistic Bayesian formulation for system identification (ID) and estimation of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models. Nonseparable Hamiltonian systems arise in models from diverse…
First-order stochastic methods are the state-of-the-art in large-scale machine learning optimization owing to efficient per-iteration complexity. Second-order methods, while able to provide faster convergence, have been much less explored…
Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…
Solving large-scale capacity expansion problems (CEPs) is central to cost-effective decarbonization of regional-scale energy systems. To ensure the intended outcomes of CEPs, modeling uncertainty due to weather-dependent variable renewable…
The double Heston model is one of the most popular option pricing models in financial theory. It is applied to several issues such that risk management and volatility surface calibration. This paper deals with the problem of global…
Infinite horizon off-policy policy evaluation is a highly challenging task due to the excessively large variance of typical importance sampling (IS) estimators. Recently, Liu et al. (2018a) proposed an approach that significantly reduces…
Recent trends in information management involve the periodic transcription of data onto secondary devices in a networked environment, and the proper scheduling of these transcriptions is critical for efficient data management. To assist in…
Accurate wind power forecasts depend on reliable wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) utilize huge amounts of computing time, but still have rather low spatial and temporal resolution. However, stochastic wind speed…
We consider minimizing a smooth and strongly convex objective function using a stochastic Newton method. At each iteration, the algorithm is given an oracle access to a stochastic estimate of the Hessian matrix. The oracle model includes…
Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for decision-making in domains such as weather, energy, and finance. It remains challenging because real-world sequences intertwine slow trends, multi-rate seasonalities, and irregular…
This paper describes a family of seasonal and non-seasonal time series models that can be viewed as generalisations of additive and multiplicative exponential smoothing models, to model series that grow faster than linear but slower than…
We study the temporal approach to equilibrium of the Gibbs' and conditional entropies for both invertible deterministic dynamics as well as non-invertible stochastic systems in the presence of white noise. The conditional entropy will…
The aim of our work is to provide a simple homogenization and discrete-to-continuum procedure for energy driven problems involving stochastic rapidly-oscillating coefficients. Our intention is to extend the periodic unfolding method to the…
In this paper we study a stochastic version of an inviscid shell model of turbulence with multiplicative noise. The deterministic counterpart of this model is quite general and includes inviscid GOY and Sabra shell models of turbulence. We…