相关论文: A new probabilistic shift away from seismic hazard…

A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full…

It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural…

The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…

The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method reliably and realistically simulates the suite of earthquake ground motions that may impact civil populations as well as their heritage buildings. The modeling technique is…

Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…

The assessment of the vulnerability of a community endangered by seismic hazard is of paramount importance for planning a precision policy aimed at the prevention and reduction of its seismic risk. We aim at measuring the vulnerability of…

On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the exceedance probability of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM) is typically evaluated. However, in recent years, dynamic response analyses using ground-motion time histories as input…

Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…

The paper by Taroni et al. (2016) considers results of forward prediction of Italian strong earthquakes by CN algorithm with the declared intent of providing "a careful assessment of CN prediction performances... using standard testing…

For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…

The State of Tripura lies in northeast India which is considered to be one of the most seismically active regions of the world. In the present study, a realistic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of Tripura State based on…

The inter-event time, IET, is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently a specific IET- model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic…

The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific…

Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the…

In this paper, a new seismic Performance Based Design (PBD) process based on a deterministic definition of the seismic input is presented. The proposed procedure aims to address the following considerations, arisen from the analysis of…

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010),…

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function.…

The safety and resilience of civil infrastructure systems are increasingly threatened by compounded risks from various hazard events and structural deterioration due to environmental stressors. This study presents a comprehensive…

Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which…