相关论文: The Role Model Estimator Revisited

Classification tasks are usually evaluated in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy is discontinuous and cannot be directly optimized using gradient ascent. Popular methods minimize cross-entropy, hinge loss, or other surrogate losses, which…

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…

We propose a new simulation-based estimation method, adversarial estimation, for structural models. The estimator is formulated as the solution to a minimax problem between a generator (which generates simulated observations using the…

Misclassified variables used in regression models, either as a covariate or as the response, may lead to biased estimators and incorrect inference. Even though Bayesian models to adjust for misclassification error exist, it has not been…

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (RL) is widely believed to have the potential to improve sample efficiency by allowing an agent to synthesize large amounts of imagined experience. Experience Replay (ER) can be considered a simple kind of…

Metamodels, or the regression analysis of Monte Carlo simulation results, provide a powerful tool to summarize simulation findings. However, an underutilized approach is the multilevel metamodel (MLMM) that accounts for the dependent data…

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

There is a long-standing debate in the statistical, epidemiological and econometric fields as to whether nonparametric estimation that uses data-adaptive methods, like machine learning algorithms in model fitting, confer any meaningful…

Regression models are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers and analysts from different fields. In many research fields the amount of available data as well as…

We propose a novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric time series models where the conditional expectation is modeled through a parametric function. The proposed class of estimators is based on a Gaussian…

Given a multivariate function taking deterministic and uncertain inputs, we consider the problem of estimating a quantile set: a set of deterministic inputs for which the probability that the output belongs to a specific region remains…

In this paper, we propose the application of shrinkage strategies to estimate coefficients in the Bell regression models when prior information about the coefficients is available. The Bell regression models are well-suited for modeling…

Agents that interact with other agents often do not know a priori what the other agents' strategies are, but have to maximise their own online return while interacting with and learning about others. The optimal adaptive behaviour under…

Modelling the behaviours of other agents is essential for understanding how agents interact and making effective decisions. Existing methods for agent modelling commonly assume knowledge of the local observations and chosen actions of the…

Fitting a simplifying model with several parameters to real data of complex objects is a highly nontrivial task, but enables the possibility to get insights into the objects physics. Here, we present a method to infer the parameters of the…

Functional bilevel methods estimate a lower-level function and plug it into a hypergradient, but this plug-in gradient can retain first-order bias when the lower-level problem is learned nonparametrically. To remove this bias, we develop a…

Most reinforcement learning practitioners evaluate their policies with online Monte Carlo estimators for either hyperparameter tuning or testing different algorithmic design choices, where the policy is repeatedly executed in the…

Parametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimators have been widely used in variety of fields including small area estimation, disease mapping. Since EB estimator is constructed by plugging in the estimator of parameters in prior distributions, it…

In the nonparametric regression setting, we construct an estimator which is a continuous function interpolating the data points with high probability, while attaining minimax optimal rates under mean squared risk on the scale of H\"older…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…