相关论文: Individual confidence intervals for true solutions…

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

We study a statistical method to estimate the optimal value, and the optimality gap of a given solution for stochastic optimization as an assessment of the solution quality. Our approach is based on bootstrap aggregating, or bagging,…

Stochastic variational inference (SVI), the state-of-the-art algorithm for scaling variational inference to large-datasets, is inherently serial. Moreover, it requires the parameters to fit in the memory of a single processor; this is…

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

In this paper we first present a novel operator extrapolation (OE) method for solving deterministic variational inequality (VI) problems. Similar to the gradient (operator) projection method, OE updates one single search sequence by solving…

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is non-symmetric. It remains however unclear how to…

In this paper we consider iterative methods for stochastic variational inequalities (s.v.i.) with monotone operators. Our basic assumption is that the operator possesses both smooth and nonsmooth components. Further, only noisy observations…

Statistical inference of the high-dimensional regression coefficients is challenging because the uncertainty introduced by the model selection procedure is hard to account for. A critical question remains unsettled; that is, is it possible…

While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The…

In this paper, we propose a trust-region interior-point stochastic sequential quadratic programming (TR-IP-SSQP) method for solving optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic nonlinear equality and inequality…

Seismic surface wave tomography uses surface wave information to obtain velocity structures in the subsurface. Due to data noise and nonlinearity of the problem, surface wave tomography often has non-unique solutions. It is therefore…

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this…

In this paper we study a class of split variational inclusion (SVI) and regularized split variational inclusion (RSVI) problems in real Hilbert spaces. We discuss various analytical properties of the net generated by the RSVI and establish…

Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses - rather than merely predicting responses - is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in…

Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) provides high resolution images of the subsurface by exploiting information in the recorded seismic waveforms. This is achieved by solving a highly nonnlinear and nonunique inverse problem. Bayesian…

We consider a stochastic Inverse Variational Inequality (IVI) problem defined by a continuous and co-coercive map over a closed and convex set. Motivated by the absence of performance guarantees for stochastic IVI, we present a…

The mean field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm implemented in Stan is relatively fast and efficient, making it feasible to produce model-estimated official statistics on a rapid timeline. Yet, while consistent point estimates of parameters…

By employing various empirical estimators for the Mutual Information (MI) measure, we calculate and compare the estimates and their confidence intervals for both normal and non-normal bivariate data samples. We find that certain nonlinear…

The quality assessment of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems is a fundamental challenge due to their inherently probabilistic nature. Standards such as ISO/IEC 25059 provide a quality model, but they lack practical and statistically…