相关论文: Estimation of Causal Invertible VARMA Models

In the fields of sociology and economics, the modeling of matrix-variate integervalued time series is urgent. However, no prior studies have addressed the modeling of such data. To address this topic, this paper proposes a novel…

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly,…

This paper investigates the problem of recovering source terms in abstract initial value problems (IVP) commonly used to model various scientific phenomena in physics, chemistry, economics, and other fields. We consider source terms of the…

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Existing score-based methods for inverse problems often resort to approximate minimization of the KL divergence between the inversion distribution and the Bayesian posterior. Such an approximation leads to severe mode collapse and…

We consider nonlinear mixed effects models including high-dimensional covariates to model individual parameters variability. The objective is to identify relevant covariates among a large set under sparsity assumption and to estimate model…

We develop a dynamic factor stochastic volatility-in-mean (SVM) specification for vector autoregressions (VARs) that embeds an SVM component within a dynamic factor stochastic volatility structure. A small number of latent volatility…

We show that the mixed causal-noncausal Vector Autoregressive (VAR) processes satisfy the Markov property in both calendar and reverse time. Based on that property, we introduce closed-form formulas of forward and backward predictive…

Estimation of the mean vector and covariance matrix is of central importance in the analysis of multivariate data. In the framework of generalized linear models, usually the variances are certain functions of the means with the normal…

A general, variational approach to derive low-order reduced systems for nonlinear systems subject to an autonomous forcing, is introduced. The approach is based on the concept of optimal parameterizing manifold (PM) that substitutes the…

We consider the problem of computing a positive definite $p \times p$ inverse covariance matrix aka precision matrix $\theta=(\theta_{ij})$ which optimizes a regularized Gaussian maximum likelihood problem, with the elastic-net regularizer…

Probabilistic inversion methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are well suited to quantify parameter and model uncertainty of nonlinear inverse problems. Yet, application of such methods to CPU-intensive forward models…

High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR…

Many popular specifications for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are not invariant to the way the variables are ordered due to the use of a Cholesky decomposition for the error covariance matrix. We show…

Propensity score (PS) methods are widely used in observational studies to reduce confounding and estimate causal treatment effects. However, the validity of PS-based causal estimators depends heavily on correct model specification, and…

Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with various forms of stochastic volatility have become increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. One main difficulty for practitioners is to choose the most suitable stochastic volatility…

Causal discovery from observational data is fundamental to scientific fields like biology, where controlled experiments are often impractical. However, existing methods, including constraint-based (e.g., PC, causalMGM) and score-based…

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, like all Bayesian methods, depends on prior assumptions. These assumptions are often chosen to promote specific features in the recovered estimate. The form of the chosen prior determines the shape of…