相关论文: The Naive Extrapolation Hypothesis and the Rosy-Gl…

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…

Extrapolation to unseen sequence lengths is a challenge for neural generative models of language. In this work, we characterize the effect on length extrapolation of a modeling decision often overlooked: predicting the end of the generative…

In this paper, a model about the evolution of opinion on small world networks is proposed. We studied the macro-behavior of the agents' opinion and the relative change rate as time elapses. The external field was found to play an important…

We investigate whether sophisticated volatility estimation improves the out-of-sample performance of mean-variance portfolio strategies relative to the naive 1/N strategy. The portfolio strategies rely solely upon second moments. Using a…

To evaluate the effectiveness of a counterfactual policy, it is often necessary to extrapolate treatment effects on compliers to broader populations. This extrapolation relies on exogenous variation in instruments, which is often weak in…

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

Scaling law that rewards large datasets, complex models and enhanced data granularity has been observed in various fields of deep learning. Yet, studies on time series forecasting have cast doubt on scaling behaviors of deep learning…

There is strong expectation that cities, across time, culture and level of development, share much in common in terms of their form and function. Recently, attempts to formalize mathematically these expectations have led to the hypothesis…

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce…

Economists often estimate models using data from a particular domain, e.g. estimating risk preferences in a particular subject pool or for a specific class of lotteries. Whether a model's predictions extrapolate well across domains depends…

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of human experts versus Large Language Models (LLMs) in the retail sector, particularly during standard and promotional sales periods. Utilizing a controlled experimental setup with 123 human…

In recent years, the need for neutral benchmark studies that focus on the comparison of methods from computational sciences has been increasingly recognised by the scientific community. While general advice on the design and analysis of…

This paper investigates how dispersion in banks' subjective inflation forecasts is a channel of the transmission of monetary policy to credit supply. We extend the Monti-Klein model of monopolistic banking by incorporating risk aversion,…

This study presents a method to predict the growth fluctuation of firms interdependent in a network economy. The risk of downward growth fluctuation of firms is calculated from the statistics on Japanese industry.

Increased availability of data and accessibility of computational tools in recent years have created unprecedented opportunities for scientific research driven by statistical analysis. Inherent limitations of statistics impose constrains on…

It is frequently asserted that in a chaotic system two initially close points will separate at an exponential rate governed by the largest global Lyapunov exponent. Local Lyapunov exponents, however, are more directly relevant to…

By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the…

We show in a simulation when economic agents are subject to evolution (random change and selection based on the success in the estimation of the result of the gamble) they acquire risk aversive behavior. This behavior appears in the form of…

We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between `active' and `inactive' strategies is subordinated…

We suggest that one individual holds multiple degrees of belief about an outcome, given the evidence. We then investigate the implications of such noisy probabilities for a buyer and a seller of binary options and find the odds agreed upon…