相关论文: Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous …

Confirmed cases during the early stage of the 2009 H1N1 pdm in various countries showed an age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most…

The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…

Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…

With a simple phenomenological metapopulation model, which characterizes the invasion process of an influenza pandemic from a source to a subpopulation at risk, we compare the efficiency of inter- and intra-population interventions in…

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that…

Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical…

Human interactions and mobility shape epidemic dynamics by facilitating disease outbreaks and their spatial spread across regions. Traditional models often isolate commuting and random mobility as separate behaviors, focusing either on…

Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…

Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…

We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a…

Meta-population networks are effective tools for capturing population movement across distinct regions, but the assumption of well-mixed regions fails to capture the reality of population higher-order interactions. As a multidimensional…

In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…

The structure of heterogeneous networks and human mobility patterns profoundly influence the spreading of endemic diseases. In small-scale communities, individuals engage in social interactions within confined environments, such as homes…

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…

We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…

Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…

Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…

We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate…