相关论文: A Creepy World

We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…

Chaotic systems, such as turbulent flows, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. However, their study remains a challenge due to the large range scales, and the strong interaction with other, often not fully understood, physics. As a…

Species or population that proliferate faster than others become dominant in numbers. Catalysis allows catalytic sets within a molecular reaction network to dominate the non catalytic parts of the network by processing most of the available…

An array system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economy evolution. The local dynamics of each map or agent is controlled by two parameters. One of them represents the growth capacity of the agent and the other one is a control…

Chaos is widely understood as being a consequence of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions. This is the result of an instability in phase space, which separates trajectories exponentially. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion…

The research concerns the dynamics of complex autonomous Kauffman networks. The article defines and shows using simulation experiments half-chaotic networks, which exhibit features much more similar to typically modeled systems like a…

Macroevolutionary dynamics often display sudden, explosive surges, where systems remain relatively stable for extended periods before experiencing dramatic acceleration that frequently exceeds traditional exponential growth. This pattern is…

A simple model of macroevolution is proposed exhibiting both the property of punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of potentialities for different species to evolve towards increasingly higher complexity. It is based on the phenomenon of…

Predictions of emergent phenomena, appearing on the macroscopic layer of a complex system, can fail if they are made by a microscopic model. This study demonstrates and analyses this claim on a well-known complex system, Conway's Game of…

The expansion of global production networks has raised many important questions about the interdependence among countries and how future changes in the world economy are likely to affect the countries' positioning in global value chains. We…

Markets have internal dynamics leading to excess volatility and other phenomena that are difficult to explain using rational expectations models. This paper studies these using a nonequilibrium price formation rule, developed in the context…

A novel mathematical framework is proposed to describe the ecological and evolutionary consequences of consumer--resource interactions. Both the consumer and resource are assumed to consist of several (sub)species, which interact between…

Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…

We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…

Modern economies evolved from simpler human exchanges into very convoluted systems. Today, a multitude of aspects can be regulated, tampered with, or left to chance; these are economic {\em degrees of freedom} which together shape the flow…

Yield stress materials fail when the imposed stress crosses a critical threshold. A well-known dynamical response to the applied stress is the phenomenon of creep where the cumulative deformation grows sublinearly with time, prior to…

This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…

Evolutionary game theory offers a general framework to study how behaviors evolve by social learning in a population. This body of theory can accommodate a range of social dilemmas, or games, as well as real-world complexities such as…

Entropy notions for $\varepsilon$-incremental practical stability and incremental stability of deterministic nonlinear systems under disturbances are introduced. The entropy notions are constructed via a set of points in state space which…

In this review article we explore several recent advances in the quantitative modeling of financial markets. We begin with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe how this controversial idea has stimulated a number of new directions…