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When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Mutual independence is a key concept in statistics that characterizes the structural relationships between variables. Existing methods to investigate mutual independence rely on the definition of two competing models, one being nested into…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-08-09 Guillaume Marrelec , Alain Giron

We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Joonha Park

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

Performing exact Bayesian inference for complex models is computationally intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can provide reliable approximations of the posterior distribution but are expensive for large datasets and…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-12-09 Maxime Vono , Daniel Paulin , Arnaud Doucet

Because of their multimodality, mixture posterior distributions are difficult to sample with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We propose a strategy to enhance the sampling of MCMC in this context, using a biasing procedure…

统计计算 · 统计学 2011-04-19 Nicolas Chopin , Tony Lelievre , Gabriel Stoltz

For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-25 Shamriddha De , Joyee Ghosh

We propose a novel approximate inference algorithm that approximates a target distribution by amortising the dynamics of a user-selected MCMC sampler. The idea is to initialise MCMC using samples from an approximation network, apply the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-05-23 Yingzhen Li , Richard E. Turner , Qiang Liu

Yang et al. (2016) proved that the symmetric random walk Metropolis--Hastings algorithm for Bayesian variable selection is rapidly mixing under mild high-dimensional assumptions. We propose a novel MCMC sampler using an informed proposal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-26 Quan Zhou , Jun Yang , Dootika Vats , Gareth O. Roberts , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

Sampling from the full posterior distribution of high-dimensional non-linear, non-Gaussian latent dynamical models presents significant computational challenges. While Particle Gibbs (also known as conditional sequential Monte Carlo) is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-03-05 Adrien Corenflos , Simo Särkkä

Posterior sampling is a task of central importance in Bayesian inference. For many applications in Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian transfer learning, the prior distribution is unknown and needs to be estimated from samples. In practice,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-08-06 Chenyang Zhong , Shouxuan Ji , Tian Zheng

We outline a procedure for jointly sampling substitution matrices and multiple sequence alignments, according to an approximate posterior distribution, using an MCMC-based algorithm. This procedure provides an efficient and simple method by…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2015-01-22 Joseph L. Herman , Adrienn Szabó , Instván Miklós , Jotun Hein

The rapid development of computing power and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithms have revolutionized Bayesian statistics, making it a highly practical inference method in applied work. However, MCMC algorithms…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-21 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Khue-Dung Dang

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-05-17 Evgeny Levi , Radu V. Craiu

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

This paper presents an improved implicit sampling method for hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems. A widely used approach for sampling posterior distribution is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, the samples generated by…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-11-27 Xiaoyan Song , Lijian Jiang , Guanghui Zheng

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-04-23 Thi Le Thu Nguyen , Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters , Yves Delignon

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-27 Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang

We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-03-31 Elaine Angelino , Eddie Kohler , Amos Waterland , Margo Seltzer , Ryan P. Adams