相关论文: Compatible Weighted Proper Scoring Rules

The standard loss functions used in the literature on probabilistic prediction are the log loss function, the Brier loss function, and the spherical loss function; however, any computable proper loss function can be used for comparison of…

Proper scoring rules incentivize experts to accurately report beliefs, assuming predictions cannot influence outcomes. We relax this assumption and investigate incentives when predictions are performative, i.e., when they can influence the…

Proper scoring rules are essential for evaluating probabilistic forecasts. We propose a simple algebraic rearrangement of the Yates covariance decomposition of the Brier score into three independently non-negative terms: a variance mismatch…

The propensity score analysis is one of the most widely used methods for studying the causal treatment effect in observational studies. This paper studies treatment effect estimation with the method of matching weights. This method…

Shafer (2021) offers a betting perspective on statistical testing which may be useful for foundational debates, given that disputes over such testing continue to be intense. To be helpful for researchers, however, this perspective will need…

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing…

Since its introduction, the skew-$t$ distribution has received much attention in the literature both for the study of theoretical properties and as a model for data fitting in empirical work. A major motivation for this interest is the high…

Autoregressive models use chain rule to define a joint probability distribution as a product of conditionals. These conditionals need to be normalized, imposing constraints on the functional families that can be used. To increase…

This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The…

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated,…

The way for performing multiple sequence alignment is based on the criterion of the maximum scored information content computed from a weight matrix, but it is possible to have two or more alignments to have the same highest score leading…

Integrating the outputs of multiple classifiers via combiners or meta-learners has led to substantial improvements in several difficult pattern recognition problems. In the typical setting investigated till now, each classifier is trained…

This note explores probabilistic sampling weighted by uncertainty in active learning. This method has been previously used and authors have tangentially remarked on its efficacy. The scheme has several benefits: (1) it is computationally…

Propensity scores are commonly used to estimate treatment effects from observational data. We argue that the probabilistic output of a learned propensity score model should be calibrated -- i.e., a predictive treatment probability of 90%…

Two sequential estimators are proposed for the odds p/(1-p) and log odds log(p/(1-p)) respectively, using independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter p as inputs. The estimators are unbiased, and guarantee that the variance of the…

Scoring rules for eliciting expert predictions of random variables are usually developed assuming that experts derive utility only from the quality of their predictions (e.g., score awarded by the rule, or payoff in a prediction market). We…

The parameters of a neural network are naturally organized in groups, some of which might not contribute to its overall performance. To prune out unimportant groups of parameters, we can include some non-differentiable penalty to the…

We introduce a new family of codes, termed weighted superimposed codes (WSCs). This family generalizes the class of Euclidean superimposed codes (ESCs), used in multiuser identification systems. WSCs allow for discriminating all bounded,…

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has made post-training highly effective when correctness can be checked automatically. However, many important model behaviors require satisfying several qualitative criteria at once.…