相关论文: Compatible Weighted Proper Scoring Rules

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it…

Propensity score plays a central role in causal inference, but its use is not limited to causal comparisons. As a covariate balancing tool, propensity score can be used for controlled descriptive comparisons between groups whose memberships…

Scoring systems are classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few meaningful numbers to make a prediction. These models are often used because they are practical and interpretable. In this paper, we…

The quality of probabilistic forecasts is crucial for decision-making under uncertainty. While proper scoring rules incentivize truthful reporting of precise forecasts, they fall short when forecasters face epistemic uncertainty about their…

In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement…

Classification is a common statistical task in many areas. In order to ameliorate the performance of the existing methods, there are always some new classification procedures proposed. These procedures, especially those raised in the…

Although linear classifiers are one of the oldest methods in machine learning, they are still very popular in the machine learning community. This is due to their low computational complexity and robustness to overfitting. Consequently,…

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

The comparison of different medical treatments from observational studies or across different clinical studies is often biased by confounding factors such as systematic differences in patient demographics or in the inclusion criteria for…

Decision trees built with data remain in widespread use for nonparametric prediction. Predicting probability distributions is preferred over point predictions when uncertainty plays a prominent role in analysis and decision-making. We study…

The power of multiple testing procedures can be increased by using weighted p-values (Genovese, Roeder and Wasserman 2005). We derive the optimal weights and we show that the power is remarkably robust to misspecification of these weights.…

We consider the segmentation problem of univariate distributions from the exponential family with multiple parameters. In segmentation, the choice of the number of segments remains a difficult issue due to the discrete nature of the…

Combining distributions is an important issue in decision theory and Bayesian inference. Logarithmic pooling is a popular method to aggregate expert opinions by using a set of weights that reflect the reliability of each information source.…

We advocate the use of conformal prediction (CP) to enhance rule-based multi-label classification (MLC). In particular, we highlight the mutual benefit of CP and rule learning: Rules have the ability to provide natural (non-)conformity…

While the predictions produced by conformal prediction are set-valued, the data used for training and calibration is supposed to be precise. In the setting of superset learning or learning from partial labels, a variant of weakly supervised…

Two indicators are classically used to evaluate the quality of rule-based classification systems: predictive accuracy, i.e. the system's ability to successfully reproduce learning data and coverage, i.e. the proportion of possible cases for…

Learning interpretable models has become a major focus of machine learning research, given the increasing prominence of machine learning in socially important decision-making. Among interpretable models, rule lists are among the best-known…

We give a new example for a proper scoring rule motivated by the form of Anderson--Darling distance of distribution functions and Example 5 in Brehmer and Gneiting (2020).

Propensity score (PS) weighting methods are often used in non-randomized studies to adjust for confounding and assess treatment effects. The most popular among them, the inverse probability weighting (IPW), assigns weights that are…

To make a joint decision, agents (or voters) are often required to provide their preferences as linear orders. To determine a winner, the given linear orders can be aggregated according to a voting protocol. However, in realistic settings,…